BTC options point to price increases as bullish processes are established before CPI data

Francisco Rodrigues (all times unless otherwise stated)

Bitcoin

Weekend Rose, after a week of market sway, offers probation. After garnering 1.2% in the past 24 hours, it now trades around $106,600, while the broader Coindesk 20 (CD20) The index increased by nearly 1.7%.

The recovery seems to be less due to headlines and their absence is more, marking a shift in the open feud between U.S. President Donald Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk. As tensions cooled, the market recovered.

Even developments that may be seen as negative do not seem to affect the market. These include Taiwan’s crypto exchange Bitopro Confirmed hackedand data from Blockchain.com show slow down It reached a year’s lowest level in BTC’s network activity.

Meanwhile, as traders react to U.S. President Donald Trump, it’s about talks with China in London, which began today. Meeting “should be well gone.”

Despite this, deflation in China is still intensifying. Consumer prices fell 0.1% year-on-year in May, while factory door prices fell 3.3%, the biggest drop since October 2022.

The People’s Bank of China has Already responded By lowering interest rates, lowering reserve requirements and injecting liquidity into the market. It may end up benefiting from cryptocurrencies that are often traded simultaneously with liquidity conditions in traditional markets.

All of this could retreat in a matter of important Wednesday when the U.S. announced its latest inflation data. May’s Consumer Price Index report is expected to show core inflation rising to 2.9%, up from 2.8% in April.

More than expected readings could delay the Fed’s next reduction and inject volatility between financial markets.

Bank of Spain warned in a note released on Monday that inflation and rising U.S. bond yields could put pressure on equity valuations and weaken the “fear of missing out” momentum that is supporting global stocks and other risky assets.

The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.5%, and if inflation is surprised by the rise, this level may start to have an impact on market sentiment. At present, the cryptocurrency market is in a firefight. Stay alert!

What to see

• encryption
  • June 9, 1-5 pm: US SEC Crypto Task Force Roundtable On “Defi and the American Spirit”
  • June 10 at 10 a.m.: U.S. House Final Services Committee hearing For the marking of various measures, including the Crypto Market Structure Act, i.e. Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act.
  • June 11, 7:00 am: Strat (Immediately) activation Mainnet hard fork enables the master node staking protocol on 2,587,200 blocks.
  • June 16: 21shares execution 1 share distribution For ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB); stocks and navigation remain unchanged.
  • June 16: Brazil’s B3 exchange emission The USD allocated Ether (0.25 ETH) and Solana (5 Sol) futures contracts were approved by Brazil’s securities regulator, Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM), and standardized as the Nasdaq index.
• Macro
  • June 9, 8:00 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) releases possible consumer price inflation data.
    • Core inflation rate mother last. 0.49%
    • Core inflation rate yoy previous article. 3.93%
    • Inflation rate mom last. 0.33%
    • The inflation rate is about the same. 3.93%
  • June 10, 2:00 a.m.: The Office for National Statistics released its April employment data.
    • Unemployment rate EST. 4.6% vs. the previous post. 4.5%
    • Employment changes last. 112k
  • June 10, 8:00 a.m.: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases possible consumer price inflation data.
    • Inflation rate mom last. 0.43%
    • The inflation rate is about the same. 5.53%
  • June 11, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases data on possible consumer price inflation.
    • Core inflation rate MOM EST. 0.3% vs. the previous post. 0.2%
    • Core inflation rate yoy est. 2.9% vs. the previous post. 2.8%
    • Inflation rate mom est. 0.2% vs. previous post. 0.2%
    • Inflation rate yoy est. 2.5% with the previous one. 2.3%
• income (Estimation based on fact set data)

Token Event

• Governance voting and phone calls
• Unlock
  • June 12: Aptos (APT) releases 1.79% of its revolving supply, worth $53.61 million.
  • June 13: Immutable (IMX) unlocks 1.33% of its circular supply, worth $12.82 million.
  • June 15: Starknet (Strk) unlocks 3.79% of its circular supply, worth $16.9 billion.
  • June 15: SEI (SEI) will unlock 1.04% of its circulating supply, worth $10.59 million.
  • June 16: Arbitration (ARB) will unlock 1.91% of its recurrent supply, worth $32.21 million.
  • June 17: ZKSYNC (ZK) unlocks 20.91% of its circular supply, worth $41.25 million.
  • June 17: Apecoin (APE) releases 1.95% of its revolving supply, worth $10.88 million.
• Token release
  • June 9: Skateboards (skateboards) listed on Binance, Bybit, Mexc, Kucoin, Bitget, etc.
  • June 16: Recommended deadline At the end of the sunset process of the polygon, remove stmatic as part of the positive
  • June 26: Coinbase to Drister Helium Move (Move), Rendering (RNDR), Ribbon Finance (RBN) and Synapse (Syn).

Meeting

this Coindesk Policy and Regulation Meeting (formerly known as cryptocurrency state) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on September 10, allowing general lawyers, compliance officers and regulatory supervisors to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight.

Token talk

Francisco Rodrigues

• Skateboarding, a blockchain infrastructure layer that focuses on unifying liquidity in a decentralized network, today launched its skating token.
• Token Generation Activity (TGE) marks the public debut of tokens and is listed on Binance Alpha, Bybit and Mexc.
• Skaters formerly known as the range protocol Create a framework This allows decentralized applications (DAPP) to run across multiple virtual machines (such as Ethereum, Solana and Tons) without the need for separate deployment.
• Tokens are the core of the system, supporting governance, points and liquidity provision through the network’s automated market makers (AMMs).
• In a fixed supply of 1 billion tokens 10% is allocated by airdrop For early users, ecosystem contributors and NFT campaign participants. Claiming and mastering the token immediately may increase the reward by 30%.
• Mexc Former market transactions Starting June 4, the price initially jumped to 33% to $0.20, before dropping to $0.12 when writing.

Derivative Positioning

• The BTC option has an open interest on Deribit of $32.9B, and the call range is much more than 200,000 contracts, compared to 110,000 contracts.
• The pre/call ratio is 0.54, indicating that the demand for rising exposure continues. The $140,000 strike led all other strikes with 16,100 open calls representing the nominal value of $1.79B.
• Expiration on June 27 was the main focus, accounting for $13.1B of nominal open interest, accounting for 41% of the total. The highest daily nominal traffic, at which time the transaction volume was $206 million, then expired on June 13.
• Monday-class data from Deribit showed that 31% of contracts were acquired and 17% of contracts were purchased. The rest of the activity comes from calls and place sales, which suggests that traders combine bullish positioning with higher strike earnings strategies.
• The store clearing heat map shows that the long leverage ratio is very high, close to $104K and $107K. In total, $39 million has liquidated leverage of about $1.047 million, making it a key downside level to focus on potentially forced sales.
• Velo’s funding rate is stable, with BTC’s annual funding holdings approaching 6.2%. This reflects a moderate bullish position, with no signs of excessive leverage in the permanent market.

Market movement

• BTC rose 2% from 4pm Friday, at $106,743.74 (24 hours: +1.19%)
• ETH rose 0.5%, $2,514.74 (24 hours: +0.29%)
• Coindesk 20 rose 2.18% to 3,088.96 (24 hours: +1.36%)
• Ether CESR compound discharge rate is 2.94% reduced by 18 bps
• BTC’s financing rate is 0.006% (6.5667%) of two people

• DXY fell 0.31% to 98.89
• Gold futures fell 0.16% at $3,341.10
• Silver Futures rose 0.87% to $36.46
• Nikkei 225 closed 0.92% on 38,088.57
• Hang Seng closes 1.63% at 24,181.43
• FTSE fell 0.11% to 8,827.95
• EURO STOXX 50 rose 0.16% to 5,418.96
• DJIA closed 1.05% on Friday at 42,762.87
• S&P 500 closed 1.03% at 6,000.36
• Nasdaq Composite closed at 1.20% of 19,529.95
• S&P/TSX composite material closed 0.33% on 26,429.13
• S&P 40 Latin America closes +0.36%, at 2,584.58
• The U.S. treasury tax rate fell by 2 basis points to 4.49% in 10 years
• E-Mini S&P 500 futures unchanged at 6,011.50
• E-Mini NASDAQ-100 futures not changed 21,784.00
• E-Mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Unchanged 42,840.00

Bitcoin Statistics

• BTC Advantage: 64.7 (+0.19%)
• Ethereum to Bitcoin Ratio: 0.02355 (-0.80%)
• Hash (7-day moving average): 872 EH/s
• HashPrice (Spot): $52.77
• Total Cost: 3.17 BTC / $335,041
• CME Futures Open Interest: 148,080
• BTC price is gold: 31.8 ounces
• BTC and gold market cap: 9.01%

Technical Analysis

• Bitcoin recovered its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) over the daily timeframe, the first time since $85,000 that it retested the 50-day EMA. Price action has moved away from the downtrend line, indicating a potential shift in momentum.
• However, it is still within the critical daily order range, which may act as a drag.
• For bullish continuation, for the price of BTC, it is crucial to stay consistent on these recycled EMAs and ensure weekly revenues exceed $109,400, which will invalidate the current weekly swing failure mode and confirm the strength of the cryptocurrency.

Crypto Stock

• Strategy (MSTR): Friday at $374.47 (+1.54%), +1.87%, $381.49
• Coinbase Global: Closed at $251.27 (+2.9%), +1.52%, $255.10
• Circle (CRCL): Close $107.7 (+29.4%), +10.21%, $118.50
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): Chaable $27.4 (+4.9%)
• Mara Holdings (Mara): Closed at $15.78 (+6.05%), +2.47%, $16.17
• Riot Platforms (Riot): Closed at $9.85 (+9.57%), +2.94%, $10.14
• Core Science (CORZ): Closed at $12.19 (+2.18%), +0.9% at $12.30
• CleanSpark (CLSK): $9.79 (+8.54%), +2.66% closes at 10.05
• Coinshares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miner ETF (WGMI): Closed at $19.57 (+7.53%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): Closed at $32.98 (+1.04%), +1.49%, $33.47
• Exodus Sports (Exodus): Closed at $28.86 (+10.45%), with no changes in the pre-market

ETF Stream

Spot BTC ETF

• Daily Net Flow: -$47.8 million
• Cumulative Net Flow: US$44.22 billion
• BTC totals approximately 1.2 million

Point ETH ETF

• Net daily traffic: $25.3 million
• Cumulative Net Flow: US$3.35 billion
• ETH total holdings ~3.77 million

source: Farside Investors

Overnight flow

Daily pictures

• The graph shows that the U.S. spotted ETH ETF has now recorded a positive net flow for 15 days for 15 consecutive days.
• These streams follow Ethereum’s pecttra upgrade and recover from a five-year low below 0.02 as the ETH/BTC ratio recovers from a five-year low.

When you sleep

In the ether