Key points:
Bitcoin (BTC) rose 3.5% between June 7 and June 9 to close to $108,500. Despite this recent rise, it is reflected in the BTC derivatives indicator that professional traders are still very cautious. The wider macroeconomic tensions continue to persist, and Bitcoin continues to show strong correlation with the stock market, limiting its short-term upward potential.
Some analysts expect Bitcoin to be Rally to $150,000 As the U.S. government approaches $4 trillion in debt ceiling. However, futures market data suggest short-term hesitation may be driven by adverse macroeconomic signals and misreading of Bitcoin Potential supply shock.
Bitcoin has been Futures premium Hover around the typical baseline of a neutral market. Recent price increases have not yet sparked significant confidence among traders. However, it is totally pessimistic to say that emotions are totally pessimistic, especially Bitcoin is currently in the all-time high of $111,965 on May 22, which is inaccurate, especially Bitcoin transactions.
Recent price movements are not driven by excessive leverage guessing, an indicator of the foundation of healthy markets. However, if fear of a recession persists, it is unlikely that Bitcoin will be consistently associated with traditional stock markets, so it is unlikely that the level will be kept above $110,000.
Currently, Bitcoin has an 82% correlation with the S&P 500, meaning that the two assets have moved in similar directions. This trend has been around for the past four weeks. Despite the volatility of the correlation over the past nine months, investors are largely seeing Bitcoin as a risky asset rather than a reliable hedge.
Bitcoin could fight wider economic headwinds
Investor concerns have been strengthened as the U.S. trade war intensifies and negatively impacts on nearly every asset class, including stocks, oil and Bitcoin. Still, Bitcoin is designed for a period of financial uncertainty. If confidence in the fiscal stability of the U.S. government worsens, risk perceptions could change Bitcoin’s interests.
The shorter the Bitcoin long term Margin ratio Show 4 times on OKX. Historically, excessive confidence has made this ratio more than 20 times, while levels below 5 times longer are considered bearish.
However, none of these indicators suggest that large investors or market makers are preparing for the Bitcoin price crash.
Related: Strategy adds 1,045 bitcoins in latest purchases at $110 million
If investors’ confidence in the U.S. Treasury’s ability to manage debt continues to weaken, then capital is likely Exit government bonds. Unlike the S&P 500, which is valued at $50 trillion, or gold at $22.5 trillion, Bitcoin has even soared $150,000 by capturing a small portion of these outflows.
In the short term, as long as the US dollar remains the global reserve currency, the price of Bitcoin remains vulnerable to downward pressure, especially in the event of a recession confirmation. As a result, widespread concerns about the global trade war and the lingering impact of high interest rates may limit the near-term upside of Bitcoin.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be considered legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent Cointelegraph’s views and opinions.
