Key points:
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Bitcoin has dropped $103,500 as traders make the decision ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC.
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Technical data points out that the price of Bitcoin rebounded between $102,000 and $104,000.
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OnChain data shows that mid-term holders have achieved considerable profits over the past month.
Bitcoin (BTC) Prices fell to $103,300 before traders began cutting risk and following interest rate decisions before the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which will be open on Wednesday. The correction is after the weekly bearish candles closed, indicating a trend reversal, while geopolitical tensions (particularly the Israel-Iran conflict) involve risk-taking sentiment.
according to Bitcoin vectora market pulse aggregator supported by the Swiss Foundation, is not only macro-driven. It coincides with seasonal weakness and drops onChain network growth, which suggests that demand is lower. Over the past day, $434 million of BTC futures has been liquidated, emphasizing that the current move is largely leveraged driven, with businessmen choosing to be cautious over fresh exposure.
Nonetheless, Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index – A metric that compares Coinbase and Binance BTC prices remained positive for most of June, indicating a steady demand from U.S. investors. However, due to the wider market caution, this demand has limited impact on price.
Further pressure comes from profit activities in the “mid-cycle holder” (6-12 months) Achieve $904 million According to GlassNode, profits on Monday. The cohort accounts for 83% of the total earnings realized, which is a significant shift in long-term or over 12 months of holders who have previously led profit realization. This shift suggests a rotation of market dynamics, with more reactive participants gaining benefits during the recent highs.
Despite this, long-term investors’ behavior still shows optimistic prospects. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. Famous Long-term holders (LTHS) are still avoiding large-scale spending, a historically bullish pattern.
A healthy MVRV Z score (indicating that BTC is fundamentally undervalued), while the momentum of positive coin days ruined (CDD) hints at selective profit rather than panic. Similar settings in the past cycle have already been held 18-25% of the rally before 6-8 weeks, meaning a potential $130,000 target by the end of the second quarter.
Related: Bitcoin threatens $104K’s “carpet pull” as Trader says major moves are not yet here
Bitcoin may be priced at $102,000, which is why
From a technical point of view, Bitcoin may approach a short-term bottom between $102,000 and $104,000, where a dense liquidity bag intersects with historic order blocks.
Bollinger Bands could be another reason for the potential average return of $102,000. As shown, a faster technical response is expected to be issued from $102,000 due to the proximity of the middle band, i.e., about $106,000, which acts as a dynamic resistor and is strengthened in terms of historical price at this level (e.g., the merger in early June).
The Bollinger is also compressing, marking an upcoming volatility spike, while the middle band (nearly $106,000) acts as dynamic resistors. Successfully recovered and closed $106,748, which can verify the bullish average reply, exchanged for $112,000. Instead, a clean break below $100,000 may invalidate the setting, targeting $98,000.
Data from letters Also Framework $98,300 is the main support for the short-term holders (STH) still profiting. Violating this threshold can tilt the structure to a deeper correction. As indicated by the letters:
“As long as Bitcoin remains above the STH realized price, we can still see the market as optimistic. This will only change if BTC actively loses the $9.8 thousand level, which could trigger a deeper decline.”
Related: Watch these Bitcoin price levels ahead of Fed Chairman Powell’s speech
This article does not contain investment advice or advice. Every investment and trading move involves risks and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.
