Francisco Rodrigues (all times unless otherwise stated)
Bitcoin (BTC) SMIDGEN, which hovered under $105,000 in the past 24 hours, has dropped by only 1.4% as cryptocurrency market balances Israel-Iran war with regulatory advances in the United States
President Donald Trump calls for Iran to intensify tensions “Unconditional surrender” After saying that the country’s leaders are “easy goals.” However, the company’s purchase of Bitcoin is based on demand, and the Senate approved US Stablecoin legislation Win the industry.
Trump’s words help raise the odds of U.S. entering into conflict Forecast 62% of the long market from around 50% of the day. Prior to August, the U.S. viewed Iranian military operations at 73%.
“Despite tensions escalating in the Middle East, BTC has not shown signs of a full-scale panic,” analysts at Crypto Telescope Fund QCP Capital Write. “BTC’s flexible price action seems to be the basis for the continued accumulation of institutions.”
This accumulation is partly driven by the corporate Bitcoin treasury. One strategy is Added over 10,000 BTC With funds from Strd’s preferred stock, Blockchain Group says Added 182 BTC This week. Bitcoin Rewards Company has ensured $250 million facility Spend on Bitcoin, and Mercury FinTech is planning Raised $800 million Used for Bitcoin Treasury.
“The market seems to have rediscovered its position, especially after BTC still surpassed the key psychological threshold of $100,000 after its initial shock,” QCP analysts said. “It is crucial that Friday’s 3% correction pale compared to last April, when BTC fell more than 8% in a similar Iran-Israel turmoil.”
Deribit’s BTC Volatility Index (DVOL) Currently it is about 40.86, up from more than 62 in early April.
The Senate ratification of guidance and establishment of national innovation, for the United States Stability Act (GENIUS) bill, which is the main part of the first major legislation to clear the Chamber of Commerce, conveys a clear message: U.S. lawmakers are increasingly open to formal rules for the industry. The market interprets this move as a structural victory.
Traders will watch today’s interest rate decisions for any surprises from the Fed. According to CME FedWatch Tools, the market can be almost the same.
This expands any impact of the Iran-Israel conflict, which has now entered the cryptocurrency space. this Iranian cryptocurrency exchange hacked The groups believed to be related to Israel only on the second day after the same group targeted state-owned banks. In the wider sphere, Iran closed the Hormuz Strait, a critical transport route or U.S. intervention could lead to a sell-off in risk assets.
Wintermute’s OTC trader Jake O. stays alert!
What to see
- encryption
- June 18: About 9:28 pm iotx L1 v2.2.0 hard fork will activation In the 36,893,881 block. The fork will reduce the block time to 2.5s and start the system Staking V3.
- June 18: The purpose invested stock “purpose XRP ETF” is Trading is expected to begin on the Toronto Stock Exchange. ETFs will provide Canadian Dollar units under XRPP, XRPP.B and XRPP.U, respectively.
- June 18: Evolve Funds Group emission XRP ETFs evolved on the Toronto Stock Exchange under Tickers XRP (CAD) and XRP.U (USD), providing direct physical XRP exposure without derivatives or currency hedging.
- June 18, 2025: 3IQ launches 3IQ XRP ETF On the Toronto Stock Exchange under Tickers XRPQ (CAD) and XRPQ.U (USD), the six-month administrative fee is 0%.
- June 20: Comprehensive blockchain Black coins (BLK) activation Segwit is on the main network, improving security and performance. The node must be upgraded to release v26.2.0 by this date. The 13.2 wallet can be used in 26.2.x.
- Macro
- June 18, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor released unemployment insurance data for the week ending June 14.
- Initial unemployment claim EST. 245k and previous article. 248k
- June 18 at 2:00 pm: The Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision. It is expected to be held at an interest rate of 4.25%-4.50%. Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference is at 2:30 pm
- June 18, 5:30 pm: Brazil Central Bank of Brazil announces its interest rate decision.
- Selic Rate Est. 14.75% vs. Previous post. 14.75%
- June 19, 7:00 a.m.: The Bank of England (BOE) announced its interest rate decision.
- Bank interest rate EST. 4.25% vs. previous post. 4.25%
- June 19, 3:00 pm: The National Institute of Statistics and the Institute of Census released employment data for the first quarter.
- Unemployment rate rises. 6.4%
- June 18, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor released unemployment insurance data for the week ending June 14.
- income (Estimation based on fact set data)
- June 23 (TBC): Hive Digital Technologies (honeycomb), aftermarket, $ -0.12
Token Event
- Governance voting and phone calls
- Unlock
- June 18: FastToken (FTN) will unlock 4.65% of its circular supply, worth $88.8 million.
- June 30: Optimism (OP) unlocks 1.83% of its circular supply, worth $17.34 million.
- July 1: SUI (SUI) unlocks 1.3% of its circular supply, worth $120.99 million.
- July 2: Ethena (ENA) releases 0.67% of its recycled supply, worth $11.23 million.
- Token release
- June 18: Fartcoin listed on binance.us.
- June 26: Coinbase to Drister Helium Move (Move), Rendering (RNDR), Ribbon Finance (RBN) and Synapse (Syn).
Meeting
this Coindesk Policy and Regulation Meeting (formerly known as cryptocurrency state) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on September 10, allowing general lawyers, compliance officers and regulatory supervisors to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight.
Token talk
Shaurya Malwa
- Ink Foundation is launching Ink, a local token designed to guide on-chain capital markets with a liquidity-first strategy, starting with the DEFI protocol established by AAVE.
- Ink will provide air water to early users, and the foundation promises measures to limit air conditioning farming and maintain long-term consistency.
- The fixed cap of tokens is 1 billion and will not be subject to governance changes or emission adjustments, which is a move to avoid common dilution problems.
- The governance of Ink Layer 2 remains the same from Ink Tokens, distinguishing it from other hyperchain projects that often interleaved protocols and token governance.
- The first utility will be a local liquidity protocol for loans and transactions, which is the basic defi foundation on the ink chain.
- Ink will debut amid weak market conditions and most 2024-25 L2 tokens are underperforming as the hype fades. For example, Celestia, Linea and Blast.
- Ink’s Defi activity is still very small, with only $7 million in TVL and $100 a day – although its “product first” narrative both raises questions about product market fit.
Derivative Positioning
- The permanent financing rate for major coins is hardly positive, indicating the cautious attitude of traders.
- The ETH futures base of BTC and CME remained at around 7% and 8%.
- Short-term choices on deribit indicate prejudice to protective voting.
- The five most traded BTC options on deribit are all strike options, ranging from $90K to $100,000, indicating an increase in demand for downside protection.
Market movement
- BTC rose 0.32% from 4pm on Tuesday, $104,736.41 (24 hours: -1.19%)
- ETH rose 0.59%, $2,526.50 (24 hours: -1.34%)
- Coindesk 20 fell 0.17% at 3,005.42 (24 hours: -2.01%))
- 6 bps with Ether CESR composite discharge rate of 3.02%
- BTC’s financing rate is 0.0048% (5.2834% annualized) two people
- DXY fell by 0.17% at 98.65
- Gold futures fell 0.19% at $3,400.40
- Silver Futures rose 0.47% to $37.33
- Nikkei 225 closed 0.90% on 38,885.15
- Hang Seng closes 1.12%, at 23,710.69
- FTSE rose 0.18% to 8,850.37
- EURO STOXX 50 rose 0.11% to 5,294.25
- DJIA closed 0.70% on Tuesday at 42,215.80
- S&P 500 closes 0.84%, at 5,982.72
- Nasdaq Composite at 19,521.09 off 0.91%
- S&P/TSX composite material off 0.10% in 26,541.39
- S&P 40 Latin America closes 0.92%, at 2,618.36
- The U.S. treasury interest rate remained unchanged for 10 years, at 4.38%.
- E-Mini S&P 500 Futures rose 0.32% at 6,004.00
- E-Mini NASDAQ-100 futures rose 0.43% to 21,824.75
- E-Mini Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.23% to 42,325.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC Advantage: 64.90% (0.13%)
- Ethereum to Bitcoin Ratio: 0.02403 (0.12%)
- Hash (7-day moving average): 886 EH/s
- HashPrice (spot): $53.1
- Total Cost: 6.26 BTC / $662,109
- CME Futures Open Interest: 153,825 BTC
- BTC price is gold: 30.6 oz
- BTC and gold market cap: 8.68%
Technical Analysis
- Chainlink’s link token has dropped below Ichimoku Cloud, confirming the bearish momentum of the update.
- Instant support is around $12.6, the low in early June.
- If it falls below, the price may drop to $10.
Crypto Stock
- Strategy (MSTR): Closed Tuesday, $375.18 (-1.85%), -0.32%, $373.99
- Coinbase Global: Closed at $253.85 (-2.95%), +0.65% to $255.50
- Circle (CRCL): Closed at $149.15 (-1.26%), +3.43%, $154.27
- Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): Chaable $25.22 (-4.22%)
- Mara Holdings (Mara): Closed at $14.67 (-4.24%), +0.48% to $14.74
- Riot Platforms (Riot): Closed at $9.66 (-5.01%), +0.31%, $9.69
- Core Science (CORZ): Closed at $11.89 (-1.57%), -0.34%, $11.85
- CleanSpark (CLSK): $8.90 (-7.48%), +0.79%, $8.97
- Coinshares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miner ETF (WGMI): Closed at $18.68 (-5.18%)
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): Closed at $28.53 (-6.52%), +4.66%, $29.86
- Exodus Sports (Exodus): Closed at USD 30.01 (-8.39%)
ETF Stream
Spot BTC ETF
- Net daily traffic: $216.5 million
- Cumulative Net Flow: US$46.24 billion
- BTC totals approximately 1.22 million
Point ETH ETF
- Net daily traffic: $11.1 million
- Cumulative Net Flow: US$3.91 billion
- ETH total holdings ~3.97 million
source: Farside Investors
Overnight flow
Daily pictures
- The U.S. dollar index tracks the value of major peers of the U.S. currency pairs and looks to exceed its downtrend line.
- Breakthroughs may weigh risky assets, including Bitcoin.
When you sleep
In the ether
