Bitcoin
Two-person prospect Katalin Tischhauser, head of investment research at Digital Asset Banking Group Sygnum, said that unless the unexpected black swan hit, a 2022-style crash looks unlikely unless the unexpected black swan hits.
“Because basic valuations are challenging; therefore, the crypto market is strongly driven; therefore, technical analysis signals such as the cautious prudence of double supreme writ. That is, a full-scale crash requires catalysts like the Terra collapse or the FTX explosion in 2022, or avoiding similar black swans, we can form the prescribed scope based on the size of current politics and regulatory agencies. Kodsk was in an interview.
Bitcoin spent 50 days trading between $110,000 and $100,000 back and forth, indicating that the uptrend near the highs in January this year was exhausted. This prompted several observers, including senior technical analysts Peter Brandtconsider the possibility of a BTC trend flip bearish in a double top pattern.
Two consecutive peaks with double tops consisting of approximately the same price ($110,000 in the BTC case), and the trend line is plotted through the lows between these peaks. The low of the BTC case was at the early April slide to $75,000. Analysts fear that potential double blasting pieces involved a downturn from a $110,000 downside and a drop below $75,000 could lead to a collapse to around $27,000. Yes, you read it correctly. Such a crash means 75% slides From the peak.
Technical models (such as double tops) often become self-fulfilling prophecies – once traders discover this pattern, their collective actions reinforce the expected outcome. So in the prospect of a double above $100,000, it’s natural to cause some caution and price drops.
However, technology alone rarely causes a price crash of 75%. For example, BTC’s crash in the 12-month period ending November 2022 ranged from $70,000 to $16,000 as the Federal Reserve’s accelerated rate exposure cycle exposed asset classes such as Crypto, such as Crypto, which has established too much speculation, laying the foundation for the demise of Terra blockchain and FTX Exchange. Both events have caused great wealth damage.
Run by flowing bull
However, the latest rally is driven primarily by institutional flows, not Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal, rather than traditional finance or Ethereum’s stories or computers that pretend to be a new world. Famous last year.
This is the funds traded on 11 bitcoin exchanges since its debut on Nasdaq in January 2024 (ETF) According to tracked data, registered net inflows exceeding $48 billion Farside Investors. Meanwhile, the adoption of BTC as a company’s finance department asset has reached a pace, which has increased the momentum of the bull. As of the time of writing, 141 listed companies held 841,693 BTC. According to BitcoinReasuries.net.
According to Tischhauser, the liquid nature of the latest bull run makes it more resilient than the previous bull market.
“Institutions implement rigorous due diligence and risk assessment before adding new asset classes such as new asset classes to the model portfolio. However, when they do so, the final allocation is long-term. This trend of sticky institutional allocation only begins, so the resulting demand will continue to provide price support for a period of time,” Tischhauser told CoindeSer.
Tischhauser explained that these investment vehicles are absorbing liquidity, distorting the momentum of demand supply and inclined toward a sustained upward trend.
“These investment vehicles are absorbing liquidity from the market, which means that whenever new large investors hit the market with bids, this will solve less and less, and the bullish impact on prices becomes more obvious.”
Half cycle may have died
Like our later years, the bearish double-top collapse scheme that many observers see as reasonable, historically it was the pinnacle of a bull market and paved the way for a year-long bear market.
Half is the programming code in the Bitcoin blockchain that reduces the speed of BTC supply expansion by 50% every four years. The last half happened in April 2024, reducing the reward per BTC from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
However, the halving cycle may not unfold as expected, as the sticky mechanism adopts a larger price than miners. Additionally, miners sell BTC, which they earned regulated unloading coins to fund operating costs, now accounts for a small percentage of the average daily transaction volume.
“The change in market leadership means that the four-year halving cycle may not work as religiously as before. In the early days, most BTC holders were miners, and BTC issued annually accounted for a large portion of the outstanding Bitcoin supply. Therefore, the sales pressure for miners is very important. Now, the supply of BTC sales is very large in the market.
