Key Points:
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Bitcoin spent a full week holding more than $107,000 in effort, but exchange inflows remained in a historic downturn when retail investors chose to sit off the market.
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With the U.S. growing at a rate, scattering becomes a real risk, but the reduction in the Fed’s reduction can resolve the situation and enhance the price of Bitcoin.
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OnChain data shows Bitcoin has accumulated, which suggests that the next breakthrough will occur in the fall of 2025.
After a brief immersion of less than $99,000, Bitcoin has Retrieve $107,000, full of hope for a breakthrough. However, some things are frustrated. The buyer has no FOMO, nor has retail investors stamped on it. Just a quiet, uneasy rally, driven by funds, whales and merchants, while the Onchain event looks soft.
This doesn’t look like a typical bull rally. Below the ground, the U.S. economy is flashing warning signs while the Fed is in trouble, between resisting inflation and supporting weak economics.
In this case, Bitcoin may thrive in order to prevent uncertainty. But can markets built on balance sheets (rather than beliefs) really destroy new highs? As stagnant whispers grow bigger, the answer may arrive this fall.
Should the United States stagnate?
Jerome Powell may not have the word “stagnation” in his semi-annual report to Congress on Wednesday, but he has made a lot of comments about him. The Fed’s chairman reiterated that central banks “have the ability to wait” until more data clarify whether President Donald Trump’s tariffs will trigger ongoing inflation. Meanwhile, new data signal signals will slow growth, rising unemployment rates and stubborn inflation – textbook definition of the stranded environment.
On June 17, Fed officials cut their GDP forecast to 1.4% in 2025, down from 1.7% in March. Inflation forecasts rose to 3% from the first 2.7%, while the unemployment rate is now expected to reach 4.5%, up from 4.4%.
Private sector data confirms the trend. Monday S&P Global PMI Flash Reading dropped to 52.8 from 53.0 in May, showing a fading momentum. Exports are falling, inventory is rising, reflecting the issue of tariffs, and consumer demand looks shaking.
More importantly, on Thursday, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Revise The real GDP in Q1 ranged from -0.3% to -0.5%, confirming the vulnerability of the US economy. Even more worrying is that personal consumption growth has dropped to just 0.5%, the weakest since 2020, while core inflation has risen to 3.8%.
At the same time, the tariff war is far from over. As an analyst for Kobeissi letters warnPresident Donald Trump’s 90-day tariff pause is now 12 days left. This means that without any new trade agreements, the United States will impose “reciprocal tariffs” in specific countries on July 9, including tariffs on EU imported goods up to 50%, while maintaining a benchmark tariff of 10% worldwide.
Meanwhile, after the bilateral agreement reached on May 14, the terms of trade with China remained paused for 90 days, setting a separate deadline for August 12. While today sets the tone for the framework of rare earth metals and the relaxation of technological restrictions, the final deal between the world’s largest economies is far from secured.
As the Israeli-Iran war fades from headlines, the trade war may soon get attention and as inflation expectations rise. For Bitcoin and other hard assets, this macro background is mainly optimistic. However, this bull market lacks a key piece.
A bull market without believers?
The Bitcoin Onchain indicator shows that the market lacks the broad belief that is usually seen in the mid-bomb week. according to encryptionaverage Bitcoin inflows into used coins fell to 5,700 BTC per month, below the level recorded in the 2022 bear market. In a typical bull market, exchange inflows rise as retail participants chase momentum. This time, silence.
The rapid recovery triggered by Israel’s strike against Iran suggests that there is still a lot of money to buy dipping sauce. However, as a glass festival Report It shows that the money seems to be concentrated in the delicate businessmen, hedge funds and institutional tables, rather than retail crowds. With the decline in the number of Bitcoin transactions and the growth in size, transactions have changed, and permanent swaps now dominate the action.
Willy Woo and Swissblock project Bitcoin Vector frankly summarize it:
“The trend is turning to support the bulls, but OnChain power is missing. Without the recovery of the fundamentals and key components (liquidity + network growth), the upside room remains speculative, leveraged, not belief. The bulls need not only structural control to maintain this move.”
This raises a key question. Can the bull market be driven mainly by institutional investors rather than retail enthusiasm?
The calm of summer – or the calm before the storm?
While speculation is booming, long-term holders are quietly accumulating. Axel Adler Jr. said,
“Now, with a score of $100,000, we are seeing a continued growth in the LTH/STH ratio again: this accumulation phase could last 4-8 weeks, after which a strong upward reversal could occur through similar to previous cycles.”
According to analysts, if the historical pattern holds, the next leg of Bitcoin can target the $160,000 range.
Seasonal Support this opportunity. Historically, Bitcoin has performed poorly in the summer. Data from the past decade suggests that between May 21 and September 25, Bitcoin’s average annualized rate of return was only +15%, while the remaining time of the year was +138%. Recently, summer is usually downright bearish, with a seasonal decline of –17.6% since 2017.
This history shows that the coming months may not be about fireworks, but more about consolidation – during the energy storage phase, the supply is quietly tightly under the ground.
Related: U.S. housing mortgage regulator considers Bitcoin amid housing crisis
If economic data continues to worsen (especially the claims of unemployed people and the Fed read on the core PCE inflation forecast on Friday and Saturday), the Fed can indeed lower interest rates in September and October. With Bitcoin exit seasonal downturns, long-term holders accumulate enough time to reach this easing.
As a glass festival explain“Structures are still supported, but breakthroughs in new highs may require clear demand, activity and belief.” Whether such beliefs appear in time depends on two things: the Fed and whether Bitcoin can capture the public’s imagination again.
This article does not contain investment advice or advice. Every investment and trading move involves risks and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.
