“Politics is not wagging its tail – it is shaking the whole dog.”
These strong words from a wealth manager to CNBC captured the busy first half of the deal last week. They also laid the foundation for the uncertain stage in the second half, and “geoeconomics” seems to remain the main market force.
This week, the focus of expectation will return to monetary policy as global central bankers (central bankers have been lowering their minds) are preparing to speak at the ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal.
Halftime report
A lot has happened over the past six months, trade tensions and TRUCES have sent stock markets on global hay.
The VIX Volatility Index (also known as Wall Street’s Fear Scale) soared in April with a tariff threat, followed by a moratorium on tariffs, resulting in huge intraday volatility across major indexes. At the same time, the “black swan” moment in the Middle East also put investors on the edge.
DAX vs. S&P 500
Of all the uncertainties, some stock markets showed significant resilience: Germany’s DAX remains the running effect in Europe, with more than 18% so far this year, followed by London’s FTSE 100 up about 9% while France’s CAC 40 lag lag with a growth rate of about 5%.
But what does this mean for the second half of the year? “Improving policy uncertainty and the deteriorating macro background uncertainty could support higher equity volatility in the coming months,” Goldman Sachs warned.
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Central Bank takes center stage in Sintra
When Goldman Sachs sounded loudly in investors’ ears, the stage would be for the central bank to reappear.
This week, the town of Sintra, Portugal, hosted its annual European Central Bank forum, where European Central Bankers joined their views on current policy issues.
The sun is likely to shine in Portugal – but President Donald Trump’s Recent Comments There is no doubt that he will cast a shadow on the meeting as he continues to put unprecedented pressure on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
Just last week, Trump’s call for Powell’s name intensified, sparking the so-called “Shadow Feeding Chair“Who can pay attention to things until next year takes over as the chair.
Powell also put pressure on his monetary policy peers to call on central banks to remain stable until they see the impact of trade tariffs: “We have the ability to wait and learn more about the economic process before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.”
Europe will need to decide what the U.S. behavior determines its policies, ECB President Christine Lagarde litigated Monday night at the opening ceremony of Sintra.
Looking forward to a strong tone; she recently Edited in the Financial Times See her calling on the euro to take advantage of the current environment and “gain global visibility.”
Labour’s first year
Next Friday marks the first anniversary of Labor’s seizure of power in Britain after 14 years of conservative rule. Victory of a landslide The ecstatic labor force returns to Downing Street and has hope for change and growth. But the honeymoon period is short.
Fast forward 12 months and Prime Minister Keir Starmer looks to be with him for the first year Approval quota decreased This put him under the leadership of his rival party, including reformed Nigel Farage, Liberal Democrat Sir Ed Davey and conservative leader Kemi Badenoch.
Starmer faces a lot of external pressures, from Public quarrel with Elon Musk Many foreign policy challenges are faced in Ukraine and the Middle East. Even the three trade deals reached with the first agreements of Europe, India and the United States have hardly increased his visibility. However, the economic challenges faced at home have caused the most dissatisfaction, with Even pressure from his own party Review certain reforms.
