Tesla’s autonomous hailiac service went a little more than a week ago with almost a dozen robotaxis passengers in the city center of Austin Live. Tesla Influencers from all over the country rose to the Texas capital to take part in the historical event – and they were lucky enough to grab a coveted invitation.
In a basic sense, CEO Elon Musk first delivered his schedule announced Back in January.
Or does he?
If you ask polymarket where 7.2 million US dollars were placed in the past four weeks at a start in June, the fixed answer is no.
Anyone who has moved Tesla with money would actually go onto the market to lose their efforts. The probability of only one has fallen 2% success rate. Apart from a surprise in the last seconds, your bets should be worthless if the clock hits the local time from 11 p.m. Texas.
An account, for example, bought 420,000 shares on average of around 12 cents – if centers are one percentage point of the probability. If this person has been liquidated before expiry, they lose 86% of their bets.
Missing piece of the puzzle
The missing piece of the puzzle that could change that at a moment was when Musk opened the service for all Austin residents. According to the conditions of the bet, this is the threshold that has to be met so that the rollout can qualify.
Currently, only those who are expressly invited, many of whom are a selected group of superfans with large supporters in the Tesla community, can welcome one of his robotaxis. There are currently not many optimism in the next four weeks that will change in the next four weeks, with the chances for a start in July at Less than each of three.
Celebrates during the market $ TSLA The competition, which starts a robotaxi today, has just sent the probability that this fell at lower processes. pic.twitter.com/xdfdqj2n0g– Gordon Johnson (@Gordonjohnson19) June 23, 2025
What about the impressive demonstration of a Tesla car on Friday, which drives from the factory outside Austin to a waiting owner at about half an hour? That was Tesla’s second milestone in less than a week, and a Early birthday present For Muschus before turning 54 this weekend.
That doesn’t qualify either.
“A program that invite only testers, only testers, participants of closed beta, factory functions or the mere publication of the complete self-driving software for private owner drivers will not be qualified,” says their conditions.
This is the simplicity of polymarket. In contrast to stock investments, in which a share can still praise in future cash flows without the corresponding goal actually reaching the deadline, there is no shift in the goal item with the predictive markets.
As soon as the conditions have been announced, either the agreed criteria are met or not – the result is always binary.
More than just semantics – Teslas scalability is the core for the robotaxi promise
While a missed attitude does not reduce the achievements of Tesla in the last few days – which did not respond to a request for comments – the problem is more than just semantic.
Musk’s core promise to distinguish Tesla from competitors such as Google’s Waymo is the ability to scale exponentially overnight as soon as the AI-capable technology proves to be safe.
This is because the entrepreneur has told its investors for almost nine years that every car that leaves his factory pre -installed drive autonomously.
While Waymo first acquire cars like the Jaguar I-Pace EV and then have to fit with expensive sensors and computing power, according to Mousk, this is not necessary when it comes to Tesla. The vehicles have already been built and delivered to customer hands. They just wait to be woken up.
“Suddenly 3 million cars will be able to drive themselves” predicted two years ago.
All he has to do is turning over a switch and bringing the over-the-air firmware update to the entire fleet. He “called” it “called”Chatgpt moment”.
Instead, the CEO still holds a tight leash where customers can use its limited robotaxi fleet. At the moment this is a big promise that Musk still has to deliver.
