- President Trump’s latest tariff Salvo -10% -70% levies threatened In non-doal countries and an additional 10% for BRICs, markets once rattled. Instead, the S&P 500 is now on a record high (6,279.35), whereby the volatility was steamed and the VIX “Fear” index rested. Analysts say that investors now treat political chaos as a background noise. Uncertainty is simply the new certainty.
President Trump said last night that he would send letters to the various countries who have not signed a trade agreement with the United States since April, and impose 10%-70%tariffs. He also said that he would punish every country with the Brics group (this is Brazil, Russia, India and China) with an additional tariff of 10%. The new period for these tariffs is August 1st.
All of this would usually create a lot of uncertainty in the markets, which leads to dramatic sale and high volatility. In fact, we saw this in April when Trump proposed his new tariff level for the first time. Markets fell. But today the markets are opened in New York, with the S&P sitting on a new record high. The VIX -Angstindex sleeps.
Why are Trump’s tariff chaos investors so non -bidding?
As Assets Recently noted, everyone expected Trump’s guidelines to damage the United States and global damage, Economies, but This damage still has to appear.
Some analysts begin to conclude that investors have become for them and consider all these uncertainties than the new normality.
Uncertainty is the new certainty, in other words. An example of this? The Bloomberg Trade Policy uncertainty index has decreased In the last few days despite Trump’s theater.
Goldman Sachs recently published an interesting note entitled “A surprisingly small uncertainty” by Joseph Briggs and Sarah Dong. They argue that the tariffs are a big deal in the United States whose consumers they will pay, the exposure of the economies of the federal states that deal with the United States are relatively low. Too small to derail global growth, they say.
“The uncertainty of trading policy rose after the election of President Trump, but recently withdrawn according to standard indices. Our own and the statistical estimates of the Fed (as well as the economic theory) imply that the growth of growth in uncertainty implies shortly after the first increase that uncertainty has already been extended in investments. 2025H1 “, It says in the note.
At UBS, Paul Donovan found that today’s trade letters will actually do push back Other negative effects that they achieve: “Allowing some inventory before Christmas, consumers do not experience the top of the inflation of these taxes by January next year – and changes that Trump will not withdraw,” he told the customer this morning.
Here is a snapshot of the campaign in front of the opening bell in New York:
- The S&P 500 futures were switched off this morning before opening 0.43%.
- The S&P 500 index closed on Friday by 0.83% and reached a new all-time high of 6,279.35.
- Bitcoin was over 109,000 US dollars.
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell by 0.56%this morning.
- China’s CSI 300 fell by 0.43%.
- Stoxx Europe 600 was flat in early trade.
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