By Jamie McGeyver
(Reuters) – A look at the coming day in the Asian markets.
On Monday, a big week for the world markets begins in Asia, in which investors still want to cope with the headlines around the expected economic agenda of US President Donald Trump and at the same time want to estimate whether this may be narrative of “US exposure” in shine loses.
The dollar fell by 1.8 %last week, the worst week since November 2023. If the Greenback consolidates, it shouldn’t be a real surprise-it reached a two-year high at the beginning of the month, and the net long position of hedge fund was the biggest For nine years.
The dollar and the US shares are closely connected, which was inspired by the enormous wave of global capital inflows, since investors have heavily placed on the American AI, technology, growth and return boom.
But if the decline in the dollar is a sign that the flame of “US-specificism” begins to flicker, is the Wall Street also prepared for a cooling phase?
The index reached a new high last week and the Nasdaq came close to it. The index stands are historically high, the ratings are covered and this week there are great events in the form of the monetary session of the Fed and the profits of “Big Tech”.
The attention for US technology is increasing because the waves of a Chinese AI startup called Deepseek are spreading. Deepseek recently launched a free open source AI model, from which it claims that it is at least equally equal on many levels, such as chatgpt, but is created to a fraction of the costs.
It is still early, but if this throws a critical light on the enormous sums that spend the US technology companies for AI, Wall Street could falter.
The Asian calendar on Monday is dominated by China’s “official” shopping manager index reports for the processing business and the service sector for January.
A Reuters survey indicates that the PMI will remain unchanged for the processing industry with 50.1 compared to the previous month. On the one hand, this would be the fourth month in a row in which the industry is expanding. It would also mean that there is almost no growth in the second month in a row.
Data from Friday showed that the profits of Chinese state -owned companies practically flew up last year and only rose by 0.4 % compared to the previous year. Larger winning numbers for the industrial sector are expected this week, perhaps already on Monday, and should confirm that 2024 was the worst year in decades.
On the second day, investors will make their judgment on the interest increase of the Bank of Japan on Friday. The first assumption seemed to be that it was a “loose rate increase”, but the Japanese money markets are still praising only another 25 basis points of a tightening this year, unchanged compared to the level before Friday. This indicates that the forecast of the Boj was actually quite neutral and Japanese stock futures indicate a strong increase on Monday.
Meanwhile, the South Korean markets will be sensitive to the news that the public prosecutor’s office charged the deposed President Yoon Suk Yeol on Sunday because he cited an uprising on December 3 with the short -lived imposition of war law.
Here are important developments that could give the markets more direction on Friday:
– China’s “official” PMIS (January)
– Japan early indicator (November)
– Germany ifo index (January)
