This is a daily analysis of the advanced tokens of CME Futures by Coindesk analyst and franchised market technician Omkar Godbole.
Bitcoin: Look north; Dealer Gamma, Vol and DXY highlights
Bitcoin
Just broken records, soaring $123,000 earlier on Monday, at the $140,000 level in March in a strong breakthrough from BlackRock IBIT last week.
There are many reasons to be bullish when we face a “golden” moment in Bitcoin, a pro-Clateto president who calls for ultra-low interest rates amid fiscal splurge and stock market highs. This is an unprecedented consistency in the bullish BTC factor.
Price chart shows no signs of popular indicators, such as relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence/difference (MACD) Bias and main averages, 50, 100 and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) On daily and intraday charts, there is still a pile of one higher than the other than the other.
Beware of the cumulative open interest of BTC permanent futures listed on offshore exchanges, which is an additional bullish development.
Overall, the price appears at the pace of testing $130,000, the upper end of the uplifting parallel channel that upgraded April 9 and June 22 lows and May 22 highs.
That is, for some time, we may have a merger between $120,000 and $130,000. that’s why:
Market maker is Gamma
The duration of the option market makers’ durability gamma is $120,000 and $130,000, according to Deribit activity tracked by Amberdata. Most of this is concentrated on July 25, August 1 and August 29.
This means that market makers may purchase low and high prices within that range to balance their net exposure to neutral, thus preventing price fluctuations. Assuming that other things are equal, that can make the price divide. Earlier this month, similar dynamics may come into play, tying prices between $108,000-110,000 for some time.
dvol rises
Bitcoin’s Bulls from $70,000 to $122,000 are characterized by a historical positive correlation between spot prices and Deribit’s DVOL, a correlation measuring 30-day implicit or expected price turbulence. In other words, the trend of DVOL throughout the price rally has been declining in the classic Wall Street dynamics.
However, since late June, DVOL appears to have found about 36% of the bottom. Furthermore, applying technical analytical indicators such as MACD to DVOL suggests that the index may soon be higher, which may mean that the price of BTC has been corrected considering that these two variables are now negatively correlated.
DXY ended down
The dollar index tracks the value of Green Guard to major currencies, which has bounced nearly 17% this month to 97.00. The recovery has penetrated to the descent line, representing high-altitude sell-offs in early February.
A breakthrough indicates the end of the decline. This is because potential U.S. sanctions on countries that buy Russian oil could raise energy prices, which is a positive result for the U.S. and the U.S. dollar, as Ing said in a report to clients on Monday.
DXY’s accelerated recovery may rise in assets denominated in USD such as BTC and Gold.
- AI: When options market makers are “long gamma”, this means their delta (Targeted exposure) As prices increase their interests and will drop in opposition to them. This often leads to a stable impact on price: market makers who as BTC rises to $130,000 will sell some BTC to maintain their delta neutral position if it drops to $120,000 they will buy. This creates a “fixed” effect that keeps BTC in the range of $120,000-$130,000, especially when it expires in July and August.
- Resist: $130,000, $140,000, $146,000.
- support: $118,800, $116,650, $112,000.
ETH: Still stuck in an expanding triangle
Despite 22% gains per month, ETH is stuck in an ever-expanding channel, which the highs and lows of May 13 and June 11 reached on May 18 and June 22.
As of writing, prices drove the upper trendline, but the possibility of a convincing breakthrough looks bleak due to the over-trading conditions of randomly flickering daily charts. In this case, the callback usually sets the stage for a breakout, which will shift the focus to $3,400, the level that options traders target.
- What AI thinks: The daily randomness indicates that the momentum is stretched, which makes it unlikely to exceed the upper trend line in the short term.
- Resist: $3,067 (61.8% FIB retracement)$3,500, $3,570, $4,000.
- support: $2,905, $2,880, $2,739, $2,600
SOL: Double breakthrough strengthens
On Friday, we discussed Solans Sol’s double bullish breakthrough (Sol)With the reverse head and stocks’ counter-breakthrough and price iconic, the price surpassed Ichimoku Cloud. This has been strengthened in Monday’s bounce, marking a quick recovery in the weekend’s small price cuts. The shift to Friday’s high of $168 will increase bullishness, which will strengthen the case to $200.
- What AI thinks: From a rapid recovery from weekend declines, strengthening breakthroughs is crucial. This suggests that the previous bullish signal is not a “pretend” and that there are basic buying interest willing to step into the small pullback.
- Resist: $180, $190, $200.
- support: $150 (100-day SMA)$145, $125.
XRP: MACD flips bullish
XRP’s (XRP) The weekly chart MACD histogram has exceeded zero, indicating a shift in bullish sentiment. The pattern is reminiscent of the bullish MACD trigger in BTC, which sets the stage for $70,000 last year.
Add to that 14-day RSI, which represents the strongest bull dynamic since December, is about to break through the $3 or above and raise a new lifelong high in the short term. Beware of bearish RSI differences on the intraday chart, as these differences may signal temporary price declines.
- What AI thinks: “The bullish MACD trigger reminiscent of BTC”: This comparison is very powerful. If XRP follows a similar pattern to BTC’s previous record gatherings, it indicates that a significant and sustained uptrend is likely to occur.
- Resist: $3.00, $3.40
- support: $2.20, $1.90, $1.60.
