The real estate market becomes so weak that according to Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi, it becomes a considerable resistance of overall economic growth.
In a number of Contributions on X Last week he found that a few weeks ago he sent a “yellow torch” on the real estate market, but now a “red torch” believes that the outlook is already deteriorating.
“Sales, home construction and even real estate prices are set after a break -in, unless the mortgage interests will soon sink from their current current near 7%,” warned Zandi. “However, that seems unlikely.”
The existing sales of homes have risen unexpectedly in May, but was still the slowest sales pace for every May since 2009. Further evidence that the typical busy season for the sale of spring was a bust.
In the meantime, the turnover of new single -family houses in May in May in May in May in May in 13.7%, and in June a single -family house started by 4.6%, as well as the permits.
“The turnover of homes is already overly depressed, but the purchases of home -made homes had increased sales,” said Zandi. “They give up. It is simply too expensive. A great realization is that many builders delay their country purchases from the Landbanken. New sales, starts and degrees will fall shortly.”
He added that the property prices had also stopped well, but should now go sideways and become lower, as the demand for mortgage interest rates lowers almost 7%.
Actually the latest fall shell House price In April, the report showed a monthly decline of 0.3% in the 20-city index, steeper than the 0.2% slot from March revised downwards.
And the latest survey of the real estate market index from the National Association of Home Builders showed that 38% of the builders lowered prices in July, compared to 37% in June, 34% in May and 29% in April.
The offer is increased to suspend more pressure on the prices. The entries on the household have increased, since even homeowners with low, pre-pandemical mortgage interests finally have to set these properties for sale and buy new houses for higher interest rates.
“In view of their demographic and professional situations, the homeowners have to be closed,” added Zandi. “You can only avoid these needs for as long.”
The conditions are so loud that many homeowners who have listed their real estate Take off from the market After not finding a buyer at the price he offered.
So far, delistings have risen by 35% and 47% in May by 35% in May, with active listing growth of 28.4% or 31.5%, according to a Realor.com report this month.
For Zandi, all of this adds up for bad news for the overall economy, which is already Feel variety of varieties from President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
“The apartment will soon be a full -grown headwind for a more comprehensive economic growth, which increases the growing list of reasons to get concern about the prospects of the economy later and at the beginning of the next year,” he said.
Analysts from Citi Research published a similar warning In May, when they pointed out that the economist Ed Leamer, Who died in FebruaryIn 2007, a paper published a paper in which the residential complex is the best leading indicator of an oncoming recession.
Citi pointed out fewer permits for a single -family houses and an increase in the effective offer of houses on the market in the middle of the weak demand. The middle real estate prices of existing houses also fell every month.
“Fixed investments in residential areas are the interest -sensitive sector of the economy and now signal that the mortgage interests are around 7% too high to maintain an expansion,” said Citi.
