Reliance Industries Ltd. Petroleum Refinery in Jamnagar, Gujarat, India on Saturday, July 31, 2021.
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India is driving a tricky balancing act after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to continue importing Russian oil, a tough balancing act that New Delhi seems to be reluctant to end the industry soon.
Although Trump told reporters on Friday that he “heard” India would stop buying, officials in New Delhi still had no commission. Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said the country “determines its sources of energy imports based on oil prices in the international market and on the global situation at that time.”
Bob McNally, president of consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group, said the Indians must be confused after Trump’s threat.
“Now we turn over and say, ‘What are you doing in Russian oil?” McNally said.
March 2022 – One month for Russia to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine – Daleep Singh, former deputy deputy consultant for the United States, Deputy Deputy Deputy Consultant for International Economics, Beden, Deputy Deputy Consultant for Government It is reported “Friends did not set a red line” and “Importing energy from Russia is not prohibited yet.”
“We don’t want to see a rapid acceleration of India’s imports from Russia because it relates to energy or any other exports that we are currently prohibited in the U.S. or other aspects of the international sanctions regime,” Singh said.
On July 30, Trump announced that India would face 25% tariffs starting August 1 and was subject to unspecified “fins” for purchasing Russian oil and military equipment.
But analysts believe that India is the world’s third largest energy consumer and has not flashed yet. Reuters reported that there was no immediate plan for a long-term contract with Russian suppliers and cited two anonymous sources of the Indian government who did not want to be identified because of the sensitivity of the matter.
Russia has become India’s leading oil supplier Since the beginning of the Ukrainian war, from less than 100,000 barrels per day before the invasion, or 2.5% of the total imports, to more than 1.8 million barrels per day, or 39% in 2023. According to the International Energy Agency 70% of Russian crude oil Exported to India in 2024.
Indian Energy Minister Hardeep Singh Puri defended New Delhi’s action in an interview with CNBC on July 10, saying it helps stabilize global prices and is even encouraged by the United States
“If people or countries stop buying at that stage, the price of oil will be as high as $130 a barrel. In this case, including our friends in the United States, including our friends, please buy Russian oil, but the price is capped.”
Russian oil exports Capped at $60 per barrel In December 2022, consisting of seven countries representing the world’s top economies, while the EU lowers the price ceiling to just above $47 barrel In July.
Despite this, the pressure is still increasing. Vishnu Varathan, managing director of New York City Securities, said the U.S. threat presents “obvious and current danger” to India. He said New Delhi may still not be commissioned in terms of oil purchases, as it evaluates the trade-off of such “Russian choice” as a bargaining chip.
India will need to work with Russian oil to search for comparable oil deals in the global market, and Vallasen is also the former head of macro research in Asia.
Varathan said New Delhi could explore alternatives, including Iran, if U.S. exemptions could be negotiated – and some other producers that the U.S. is under pressure from the U.S. on the U.S. inside or outside OPEC+. ”
OPEC+ Group has Agree to increase output on Sunday 547,000 barrels per day a day amid concerns about potential supply disruptions related to Russia.
Rapidan’s McNally said India will face a difficult choice.
“Trump is serious. He is frustrated with Putin… India will have a tough choice, but if Donald Trump decides to really put the whole relationship on it, it will be hard to see them continue to import a million dollars of Russian crude.”
