In what first appears as a somewhat morbid game of “Who do you rather?”, Researchers have published a new study, which plays, how likely the average person will die if one of various mishaps like cars -crashes, carbon monoxide -poisoning, and lightning strikes, will occur -or a giant asteroid destroys the ground.
The probability of planet-annihilating asteroid crashing into the Earth is low, but it is not zero. In fact, the land had a recent close -up call, when a newly discovered asteroid was calculated to have 1-in-63 possibility to impact our planet in 2032. Fortunately scientists later reviewed the possibilities of that occurring up to almost zeroBut nonetheless, Asteroid 2024 yr4 reminded us of how vulnerable we really are.
In the new study, researchers aimed to calculate how much it is likely that an asteroid could hit the Earth during the average human life expectancy, and the possibilities that the effect would kill us, and then compared this to the probability of other possibly deadly things that occur to people in their lives, and how likely they will fulfill their end.
In a surprise finding, the researchers have found that if an asteroid effect happens, more likely to kill you than if you contracted rabies, according to the Studywhich was published on the preprint website Arxiv. They also found that the possibility of an asteroid hitting the Earth is more likely than the possibility of a man struck by lightning, but if you are struck by lightning, it is much more likely to be fatal.
Calculating the probability of asteroid effect is difficult. To publish an estimate, the researchers analyzed data on the population of near-earth objects, as well as previous risks of estimates of potentially dangerous asteroids and other space rocks, which are more than 460 feet (140 meters) wide. They then calculated the frequency of hits of these objects, and compared this to data about other sad ways to die and the chances of these happening to an average man throughout his life.
Of course, no man has ever died of an asteroid effect hitting the ground, while 13 people have died Of Lightning in 2024 in the United States alone. But nevertheless, the study “places an event that would affect the planet (NEO effect) in a context with potentially deadly events that can hold individuals,” the researchers wrote. “This serves the goal of allowing experts and non-experts to put the probability of NEO effect in a mental framework of events, with which they may have some familiarity, such as car crashes and animal attack.”
NASA is already planning for such an apocalypse eventually: in 2022, the agency beat a A spacecraft in an asteroid In a test designed to see if we could turn away some dangerous space rocks directing our way. Known as the Dart mission, it was a success, and following a satellite is currently On the way to Rendezvous with the same asteroid To study the impact upward.
