Bitcoin (BTC) Violation of March 14, breach of support trend line (XAU) for gold (XAU).
XAU/BTC ratio weekly performance table. Source: TradingView/Northstar
Popular analyst Polaris explain If Bitcoin lasts for a week, or a month, the crash could end Bitcoin’s 12-year bull run.
Is the bull market for Bitcoin over? Let’s take a closer look at the correlation between BTC and gold.
Gold hits new record when Bitcoin’s Uptrend cools
The decomposition of the BTC/XAU ratio occurred at a new record above $3,000 per ounce on March 14, after an increase of about 12.80%.
Instead, Bitcoin is often called “Digital Gold,” so far, has dropped 11%.
BTC/USD and XAU/USD YTD performance charts. Source: TradingView
The performance reflects a contrasting network inflow based on U.S. spot exchange funds (ETFs) track performance of Bitcoin and gold.
For example, according to data resources World Gold Council. Globally, gold ETF inflows are US$23.18 billion.
Gold ETFs held by region by region are held weekly. Source: GoldHub.com
On the other hand, the location of the United States Bitcoin ETF According to Onchain Data Platform GlassNode, YTD’s outflow of YTD was nearly $1.46 billion.
U.S. Bitcoin ETF net traffic at the end of the year. Source: Glass Festival
The driving force behind this divergence lies in macroeconomic uncertainty and Adventure emotionsPresident Donald Trump’s intensification Positive trade policy.
Related: Bitcoin Panic Sales Cost in 6 Weeks New Investors $100 Million – Research
New tariffs In China, Mexico and Canada, fears of a global economic slowdown have increased, pushing investors toward traditional avoidance assets such as gold.
Meanwhile, central banks, including the United States, China and the United Kingdom, have accelerated their purchases of gold, further raising gold prices.
The country that has received the most gold so far. Source: Goldhub.com
By contrast, Bitcoin is reflecting a broader risk market. As of March 14, its 52-week correlation coefficient was 0.76 with the Nasdaq composite index.
BTC/USD and NASDAQ combined with 52-week correlation coefficient chart. Source: TradingView
Is Bitcoin price high?
this Current Bitcoin to Gold Strike malfunction Consistent with the historical model, especially the 2022 fractal from March 2021 to March 2021, which was before the last bear market.
At that time, the BTC/XAU ratio showed bearish divergence, characterized by price increases in price increases in relative strength indexes (RSI). This pattern indicates a decrease in upward momentum.
The performance graph of the BTC/XAU ratio is a two-week one. Source: TradingView
So the ratio initially retreats to the 50 cycle, with the two-week exponential moving average (EMA) supporting the level, and then eventually drops by 60%.
The BTC/XAU failure period coincides with a 68% correction of Bitcoin against the US dollar.
BTC/USD performance chart for two weeks. Source: TradingView
BTC/XAU once again completed the two-phase EMA retest, echoing the 2021–2022 fractal.
BTC/USD two-week performance chart (zoom). Source: TradingView
As the RSI shows bearish differences, momentum appears to be fading, increasing the likelihood of further decline, especially if the ratio decisively drops to 50-2W EMA support (~26 XAU).
As a result, it can also indicate an increase in the vulnerability of Bitcoin’s price decline in USD, while the 50-2W EMA is below $65,000, which is the next potential downward target.
BTC/USD 2W price performance chart. Source: TradingView
That’s about 40% higher than Bitcoin’s record high, about $110,000 as determined in January.
However, Nansen analyst consider If 50-2W EMA is supported, it will reduce “correction in the bull market” and thus increase bullish revival. However, a final breakthrough below EMA could push Bitcoin into the bear market.
If this fractal repeat of Bitcoin gold coins is the likely drag of Bitcoin’s 2025 downward target to a 200-cycle two-week EMA (blue wave) to $34,850.
This article does not contain investment advice or advice. Every investment and trading move involves risks and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.
