American CEOs feel a little more confident when they enter in the second half of 2025 – but not optimistic enough to grow their employees because they are worried about the head of President Trump’s tariff plans.
The conference board published yours US CEO confidence report For the third quarter on Thursday, it was found that the CEOs resigned from the peak border of uncertainty that they experienced in the second quarter.
For example, 71% of CEOs were in the last quarter Preparation for a recession With another 12% you can expect a deep economic change with the overflow of the planet. In comparison, Q3 is positive in its prospects: only 33% now believe that there will be a recession and only 3% believe that there will be global effects on the rest of the planet.
This genius is not necessarily reproduced by economists. This week Moody’s main economy, Mark Zandi, a bombing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics – said other data – made him realize that America is “on the abyss of the recession”.
While managers may not agree on site, they show why 2025 will probably be the year of cost efficiency, since the bosses are increasingly tightening their belts when it comes to salary billing.
The conference council has found 34% of the CEOs expected a net reduction of their workforce In the next 12 months, 28% in the second quarter – either by cutting jobs or not by replacing the roles of the graduates.
In fact, the proportion of CEOs to expand their workforce to expand from 28% to 27%, and 39% of CEOs planned to maintain the size of their workforce of 44% in the second quarter.
“The proportion of CEOs, which await a certain reduction in the size of their workforce in the next 12 months, rose in the fifth quarter of a row,” said Roger W. Ferguson Jr., Deputy Chairman of the Business Council and Chair emeritus of the Conference Board. “For the first time since 2020, the CEOs plan to reduce their workforce, the proportion that should expand, although plurality continued to do little change (39%, 44%).”
Workers who are departed or dismissed can return to the labor market harder. Part of the softness in the latest report by the BLS wrote the North America economists from Macquarie in a note to customers this week, does not come from layoffs, but from people who are not able to re -enter the market.
David Doyle and Chinara Azizova found that the first demands on unemployed remain low, which indicates that layoffs are not to be top, but the continued claims increased higher, which indicates that those who were released were more difficult to find roles.
In fact, the duo that added data for job offers and labor sales (Labor Tuktuation Survey) showed the number of unemployed that the number of unemployed among the workers and reinforcements increases the strongest, which indicates that those who are difficult to gain a foothold with a less specific career story.
“It is important that the economic consequences that flow out of a job loss (and loss of income) are far more extensive than the unused growth that comes from a new worker who finds no work,” they stated.
Manage costs
The companies are increased due to the tariff regime of the White House, since the global supply chains are increasingly interwoven.
The vast majority of business leaders – 93% – were looking for cost efficiency by using AI or automation to reduce overhead costs. And 64% stated that they would pass on this price increase to consumers, and further 16% stated that they still consider.
This is a higher part of the passage than given by previous surveys. For example the New York Fed reported In June, 45% of service companies wanted to pass on the full expansion of their increase in tariffs.
“The trust of the CEO recovered in the third quarter after the collapse in the second quarter, but it was not missing that it signaled a return to optimism,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist for global indicators in the conference board. “The improvement is a continuation of the trend, which, according to tariff disputes between the USA and China, became less intense and may reflect on the continuing progress in the trade negotiations.
“The views of the CEOs on the current economic conditions recovered. Their six-month expectations of the economy as a whole and in its own industries also improved. The reviews of the current conditions of the CEOs in their own industries-a measure, which were not included in the calculation of the topline confidence measure.
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