Albanis faces a headwind before vote in May

The government’s election plan also exaggerated the course when Hurricane Alfred drove on Australia’s east coast earlier this month.

To capitalize on some rare good news about interest rates, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is on the cusp of announcing an April voting date. Instead, he had to focus on responding to natural disasters. A labor minister told me that this was the decision to take it out “the act of God.”

You might say it is the subject of his administration: Big plans are often derailed by unpleasant surprises – trying out crises of global economic conditions and cost of living that are hitting many countries, foreign wars and tricky geopolitics, the rise of state divisions, and now a huge storm.

Albanese, who leads the Labor Party, hopes to reset his second term.

Peter Dutton is Peter Dutton, a conservative, he is a conservative, he is the main member of the so-called alliance with the Australian National Party – he only had a poll two years ago that he showed he did not enjoy it.

But now the competition between them is so close, the rise of independent or small parties, that many expect an unresolved parliament.

So, how does Prime Minister Albany unlock it?

His victory in May 2022 is seen as a new beginning after nine years of conservative rule.

Climate action is a major action on the agenda, and also address the cost of living and restore stability to the country’s leadership.

But his legacy to the government is engaged in indigenous affairs. He opened the victory speech, reaffirming a commitment to a historic referendum on the Indigenous voices in Congress, a consultative body that will inform the government about issues affecting the Indigenous peoples.

Albanese spent most of his 2023 campaign on a “yes” vote. He hoped that this was a time when Aboriginals would be constitutionally recognized – finally catching up with other former British colonies – Australia would begin to patch up what many believed to be very broken relations with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.

But the proposal was decisively rejected, disappointing and betraying many indigenous people. Albanis was also licked after a destructive exercise.

Some critics accuse why about 60% of Australians voted “no”, which is why confusion and misinformation. But despite Albanese’s campaign for “yes” vote, opposition leader Peter Dutton ran “no” to attack Albanese spending money on the referendum as it reinflicts the crisis of living costs.

“(Dutton) not only won the referendum, but also won the victory of positioning Labor as a government rather than focusing entirely on issues that are important to Australia,” said Kos Samaras, political consultant and former labor strategist.

Interest rates have risen 12 times during Albanese’s tenure (and cut once in February), inflation surged after the pandemic, and the housing crisis in the country deepened, Australians increasingly felt extended.

While the Prime Minister will blame many issues on many issues under the feet of the previous coalition government, voters want to know who is best to deal with them now.

In his victory speech by Anthony Albanese in 2022, he said Australia is “the greatest country on earth.” Although Australian voters are increasingly questioning whether this is still correct – perhaps more importantly, whether politicians from traditional parties can solve the problem.

So while many are disillusioned with Labour, this is not necessarily a vote for the Dutton League in the ballot box.

Support for minors and independents reached record levels in the last election and is expected to be similar this time. If neither side hits the magic number of 76 seats in the House, and the poll is taken after the poll, the independent candidate could be the king-maker of any future government.

If that happens, Australia will be another page in a story unfolding around the world – voters seeking more radical solutions and voting for change. In many places, this is a real threat to democracy because people stop trusting the system.

But while Australia faces the same challenges as the rest of the world, some of the quirks in its electoral system have so far avoided the more radical volatility we have seen in other countries such as the United States, France, and Germany.

Experts all agree that mandatory voting is a key factor in Australia’s political stability. In the 2022 elections, less than 90% of the population voted, which is much higher than the average OECD turnout. The fine for not participating in the federal election is only $20, but there is a responsibility here to go out and vote.

This means that politicians don’t have to mobilize their base – turnout is a given, but rather push your narrative. If voting is optional, the trend of special interest groups tends to become over-influential because those with lower engagement decide not to vote. Also, if everyone (regardless of their politics, education, or wealth votes), it tends to elevate the results to a more representative center.

“The elections (in Australia) are decided in the middle,” said Antony Green, the country’s chief election analyst. “This means conveying your message through those who don’t get much attention.”

Experts say another big stabilizer in Australia is the priority voting – voters effectively number candidates as the ones they want to win. That’s why in recent years, the Greens have appeared on the left and a country has appeared on the right, but labor and alliances have dominated. Experts say the impact of preferential voting temper on polarization and forcing two major parties to call people who don’t necessarily vote for them first to get their next preferences, which also contributes to moderate policies.

While the sport will focus on issues around home, it would be foolish for candidates to ignore global political headwinds.

In last year’s presidential election, analysts I rarely talked to seemed to think that the Trump White House would have a significant impact on Australia, a relatively small and distant democracy.

But five months feel like a lifetime in today’s politics. There is no day without Donald Trump making headlines and Australians are investigating.

Trump clearly ignores the long-term alliance and the constant talk of tariffs and trade wars, all of which plays a role in Australians’ fear of their place in the world – and importantly, it’s the future of diplomatic and military relations that matter most to it.

Peter Dutton argues that he would be much better than the Albanians when dealing with Trump. But in doubt, anyone really knows how to deal with this new government – ​​politicians of all stripes around the globe feel their way of how best to manage their relationship with the United States.

With Albany shooting a rifle today, the Australians have been on a fierce campaign for more than a month to help them determine their hopes to lead them over the next three years.

While Labour’s handling of Alfred’s previous cycle has had an opportunity to improve – the Prime Minister’s approval rating has been raised to its highest level in 18 months – polls have been conducted in recent months, which suggests the Dutton administration.

It is still very close, and the prospects facing the Albany government are the first since 1931 to fail to win a second term.