On June 17, 2025, after the Israeli capital Tehran strikes against the Israeli capital Tehran, the smoke rolls to a distance from a long-distance refinery.
Atta Kenare | AFP | Getty Images
Analysts are working to predict the extent to which the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran may affect oil prices.
Israel’s Sneak attack On Friday, a spiral battle between regional enemies was spiraled between Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure.
U.S. President Donald Trump called for “Unconditional surrender“From Tehran, warn Washington of patience to wear thin clothes.
Energy markets are weighing the possibility of direct U.S. participation in conflict, and the potential for severe supply disruptions – especially in the worst-case scenario, such as Iran’s block The highly strategic Hormuz Strait This links the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman.
“Upset blankets” in recent days have landed on the oil market,” John Evans, an analyst at oil brokerage PVM, said Wednesday.
“Our market is entering a world where missile exchange is common, but its cynicism has not been established because of the ease of circumstances escalating,” Evans said in a research note.
Iran saw Iran’s ongoing retaliation attacks on Israel from Tel Aviv, Israel on June 17, 2025. Iran resumed ballistic missile operations in response to Israeli attacks.
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images
Bazan oil refinery complex in Israel Continuous damage Iran attacks earlier this week Israeli air strikes In the South Pars field, the world’s largest natural gas field, prompted a partial suspension of production in Tehran. The aura of the south is shared between Iran and Qatar.
“This situation is as smooth as the basic commodity it mainly affects, and while there is a brotherly guess, your guess is as good as my occupation,” said Evans of PVM, but in future price divination, positioning will at least continue to be long-term in defense. ”
CEO of oil companies Total energy,,,,, shelland Hum Further attacks on critical energy infrastructure told CNBC on Tuesday There may be serious consequences Global supply and prices.
“This is roulette”
Oil prices in recent days were traded in the mixed area on Wednesday.
International Benchmarks Brent Crude oil futures for August were slightly changed at 12:48 pm London time. us West Texas Intermediate Meanwhile, futures for July delivery are traded at $74.86 per barrel.
Per Per Per Lekander, founder of investment management firm Clean Energy Transition, described the oil market conditions in the advance of Israel’s attack on Iran last week as “bad”, given the rich supply growth and soft demand from OPEC and non-OPEC producers.
“I’m increasingly convinced that we will head to the 2014/2020 reset as low as $30-50 to lower CAPEX and start a new cycle. In fact, the current conflict makes this outcome more likely as producers emerge and hedge,” Lecard said.
He added: “Although it’s roulette. Our price has a risk premium of $10 per barrel, which is fair, given that there are obviously some disruptions (mainly Iranian exports and some lower tanker loadings).
What is the next step in oil prices?
Looking ahead, Stephen Schork, editor of the Schork report, said Wednesday that a significant escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict could significantly raise oil prices.
“We’re a little bit stable right now. I think we’re waiting for the next title to come out, and I think anyone who doesn’t think oil will be higher, I really think they’re trading in hope rather than reality,” Schork told CNBC.Enter the Middle East. ”
He added: “We are now facing the biggest threat to the oil market since Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990, and may even be greater than the Arab oil embargo in 1974.”
Schork said that over the next five weeks, there is about a 5% chance that oil prices will climb above $103 a barrel, and if it flows out of the Persian Gulf, the chances of a rough surge are as high as $160 a barrel and as high as $160 a barrel, Schork said.
