- Protests against ice attacks In the Los Angeles region you will find the procedure against employees without papers in companies and the general effects of legal or other immigration on the economy this weekend. The collapse of immigration is a larger negative supply shock than President Donald Trump’s tariffs. German bank said.
President Donald Trump Mobilization of troops of the California National Guard In order to protect immigration officers from demonstrators, his approach against undocumented workers and the economic effects of a sudden decline in the job offer.
The protests in Los Angeles began on Friday when armed federal agents with camouflage uniforms, tactical vests and helmets came in armored vehicles to carry out an attack on a clothing wholesaler. It was the latest in a series of similar top -class operations Companies across the country.
The Ministry of Labor also published its monthly job report on Friday, in which the US workforce shrank in May when the number of employees born abroad The largest decline in retreat since 2020. This comes after an increase in immigration during the bidges administration when increasing economic activity.
According to an analysis of the Deutsche Bank of the US-Zoll and border patrol data, the number of encounters on the southwestern border has dropped to 12,000 people per month, since Trump’s inauguration of an average of 200,000 during the year and a half between January 2022 and June 2024.
“While everyone focuses on the effects of tariffs, the actual history for the US economy is the collapse of immigration: a decline of more than 90% compared to the running rate of previous years, which corresponds to a slowdown of acquisition of more than 2 million people,” wrote George Saravelos, head of FX research at Deutsche Bank on Friday on Friday on Friday. “This is a much more sustainable negative shock for the economy than tariffs.”
While Trump has pointed out a weaker growth of the salary statement as reasons for the Federal Reserve when lowering interest rates, his approach to immigration gives the central bank, which is already careful before the inflation effect of its tariffs, to wait and see another reason.
This is because a workforce that grows more slowly does not need as much setting to absorb the additional job offer. Even when the average salary statements this year cooled down from 250,000 in 2024 to 124,000 per month, the working phase has been around 4.2% since last summer.
Wall Street has a lower Breakeven rate for employment growth or the attitude that keeps the unemployment rate stable. By the end of this year, this pace of 170,000 now and 210,000 in the previous year should fall to 90,000 per month, so Morgan Stanleyin which deportations and slower immigration cited.
Deutsche Bank warned that the collapse of immigration will have a broader impact on the financial markets, including the dollar, which has already been beaten by Trump’s aggressive tariff campaign.
“Last year we wrote that the United States benefited from a Goldillocks mix from high employment growth and low wages, precisely because of high immigration numbers,” said Saravelos. “If the recent immigration trends continue, this must follow that the opposite will occur in the course of the year. As the Energy Chock 2022 showed, a negative supply shock is not good news for a currency.”
This story was originally on Fortune.com
