Key points:
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BTC consolidates within the downward channel, but weak chain activity indicates a lack of motivation.
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Rising core inflation data (2.7%) and sticky price growth reduce the possibility of the Fed lowering tax rates, thus maintaining pressure on Bitcoin and risky assets.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price fluctuations were significant at the beginning of the week, with swings on weekends and Monday causing a huge shock in the derivatives market.
according to Glass nodeThe $28.6 million long position and $25.2 million shorts were liquidated within 24 hours, reflecting a rare double-sided flush that caught leveraged traders off guard and highlighted the rapid changes in market sentiment.
Open interest timed in BTC fell by about 7%, from 360,000 BTC to 334,000. This sharp decline indicates a temporary clearance of speculative leverage, which indicates that the market is in a reset phase.
although Bitcoin BTC’s OnChain activity remains in the $100,000 to $110,000 range, showing signs of cooling. Profitability indicators are fading, and user participation remains soft, thus inferring the merger phase. GlassNode noted that the market appears to be digesting recent earnings, which may await an upsurge in demand for renewal to strengthen the next leg.
From a technical point of view, Bitcoin failed to scan external liquidity close to $109,000, resulting in a gradual grinding of the 4-hour chart. Current price action is still limited to the downward channel, with key key areas ranging from $103,400 to $104,600.
The region is consistent with the Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) and is supported by a 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), increasing the likelihood of a rebound.
Given that BTC collects internal liquidity within this range, a bullish breakout above the descending channel of new high schools is still a reasonable situation. But until momentum is established and OnChain activities resume, the broader market structure may remain in a consolidation model.
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Bitcoin will face the wind as core inflation increases
The lack of bullish follow-up may mean that bearish momentum may continue into the next week. Despite recent positive chats about potential interest rate cuts, the latest inflation data suggests that the Fed has little reason to change its position.
The Fed’s preferred measure, personal consumption expenditure or PCE inflation rose to 2.3%, which was consistent with expectations, while core PCE climbed to 2.7%, slightly higher than the expected 2.6%. This marks the first rise since February 2025, indicating an increase in inflationary pressure.
As price growth shows signs of stickiness, the Fed may keep its pace pausing, leaving financial situations tight, which is bad for risky assets like Bitcoin.
Glass node data Further support for the prudent outlook shows a small amount of spot volume increased by $7.7 billion in the second quarter. Transfers fell 36% earlier in the quarter, highlighting the lack of speculative urgency.
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This article does not contain investment advice or advice. Every investment and trading move involves risks and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.
