
Key points:
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The stable inflow pattern reflects the levels seen after Luna and FTX crashes. Point out fresh accumulation and potential for breaking through the assembly.
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Bitcoin holds over $100,000, but new user activity remains low, suggesting that in the “HODL” phase, holders are waiting for fresh demand to raise prices.
Bitcoin (BTC) is flashing with early signs of strong gatherings, but the price list is not attracting attention. OnChain data show a “demand generation” pattern similar to the accumulation phase seen after Terra/Luna and FTX crashes, and both mark the bottom of the main loop.
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. explain The 30-day moving average of Stablecoin inflows has dipped into the negative zone, forming the same “blue zone” seen before 2022. This suggests that participants are not ready for sale, suggesting meaningful demand returns under suppressed volatility. Adler said
“If the inflow remains at or above the level after Duno and after FTX, it will strongly signal the launch pad of the next Bitcoin rally.”
Bitcoin Network Activity Signal HODL Advantages
BTC is priced above $100,000, but the new UTXO 30-day SMA is the proxy for new network activity and is still close to 570,000. This is about 40% lower than the activity of BTC trading between $60,000 and $70,000, away from the 85,000 to 1 million range that supports the 2024 Bull run.
This divergence suggests that long-term holders are locking coins, not moving them, creating a situation where supply compression is expected to rise rapidly if new demand begins. More than 700,000 new relocations. UTXO The metric system will indicate that fresh participants are entering. If it climbs above 850,000, it can confirm the start of a mature retail and institutional-driven bull phase.
Exchange streams support this setting, tracking settings for short-term to long-term BTC inflows, which has dropped to areas that historically marked the seller exhaustion phase, where lower seller liquidity reduces upward price momentum.
Meanwhile, whales appear to be mobilizing. Large transactions now account for 96% of all exchange traffic, which is the level associated with major price increases. These entities may position coins as strategic redistribution, often using price peaks regularly.
Related: Record Q2, close next month? 5 Things You Know About Bitcoin This Week
The risk of imbalanced demand for BTC remains
Despite these bullish structural signals, there are short-term risks. this Apparent demand The metric 30-day period returned to negative for the first time in two months, indicating that new buyers are not in sufficient demand to absorb sales pressure from miners and some long-term holders (LTHS). This imbalance increases the risk of near-term price correction.
In this mixed environment characterized by Hodling, seller exhaustion and early whale activity, Bitcoin’s next move depends on whether new demand can outweigh the remaining sales. If the momentum booth approaches a critical resistance level of $110,000, a short-term correction can be ahead of a broader uptrend.
Related: BTC Price Eyes liquidity $109K, Bitcoin’s new all-time high moment “inevitable”
This article does not contain investment advice or advice. Every investment and trading move involves risks and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.