Bitcoin rally above $110K depends on 3 factors


Key points:

Bitcoin (BTCIt has remained within range since Wednesday, with prices fluctuating less than 3% for six consecutive days. This unusually low volatility prompts traders to speculate whether the breakthrough will be affected by the weakness of the dollar, especially in the country Financial status Continue to deteriorate.

Although the dollar movement has attracted attention, other key factors must bring Bitcoin to $110,000.

Source: X/Web3night

Although many point to an inverse correlation between dollar strength and Bitcoin’s price movement, historical data show a period of similar directional trends. An example happened between August 2024 and April 2025.

USD index (green, left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

During these eight months, Bitcoin showed strength, while the DXY index rose from 100 to 110, as the dollar went back to 104 weaker. This suggests that relying solely on weaker dollars to explain potential Bitcoin bull runs has no solid foundation, as both assets have shown simultaneous strength in recent history.

The U.S. economy remains the main force, accounting for 26% of global output. However, 46% of the revenue of the Nasdaq 100 companies comes from International Market, according to global investment research. A weaker DXY index will benefit these companies because their foreign income becomes more valuable when converting it into US dollars.

Will Bitcoin benefit from inflation, capital rotation and S&P 500 rebalancing?

Many investors still classify Bitcoin as a risky asset rather than a completely unrelated financial alternative. As the 100 NASDAQ 100 hit an all-time high on June 30, investor confidence is rising, encouraging some to spin out of fixed income and into higher risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Another possible catalyst for Bitcoin’s over $110,000 is the reappearance of inflationary pressure. From March to May, the U.S. personal consumption expenditure index remained below 2.3% after exceeding the Fed’s target for more than five months of inflation.

US PCE index. Source: Bloomberg, Sachs

As supply chains adjust, the 10% import tariffs imposed by the United States in April are gradually shifting to consumers. Karthik Bettadapura, Co-founder and CEO of DataWeave, Tell Yahoo Finance: “What we saw in June was the first to be based on a wide range of price acceleration as sellers began to adapt to higher drop costs.”

Whether it is the correlation between Bitcoin and consumer prices, cryptocurrencies have long been promoted to Inflation hedgingespecially during the 2021 Bulls Run. Bitcoin is often described as digital gold, but its growth rate in 2024 is 114%, indicating that price rallies can occur even in a low-inflation environment.

Related: Strategy bought $531 million in Bitcoin for $531 million as a rebound above $107K

Although not directly tied to Bitcoin itself, Potential increase Some people regard the S&P 500’s strategy (MSTR) as a secondary driver. Joe Burnett, Director of Semler Scientific, claim “If included, the tsunami of passive capital will begin chasing Bitcoin.”

Ultimately, Bitcoin’s potential climb to above $110,000 may be powered by a variety of forces: stock peaks, updated inflation issues, and the strategy of possible S&P 500 S&P 500 inclusion in stocks, and these risks may be fused, all of which may be fused to create good BTC price momentum.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be considered legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent Cointelegraph’s views and opinions.