Key points:
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The number of Bitcoins held for more than 10 years is faster than mining new coins -550 BTC/day, while 450 BTC/day issuance.
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17% of BTC has been considered liquid, with forecasts indicating up to 30% by 2026.
Fidelity Digital Assets Release Report After the halving in 2024, a key shift in Bitcoin supply dynamics has been highlighted. The report notes that the “old” Bitcoin supply of coins held for 10 years or more has begun to surpass new issuances, while 550 BTC is entering the ancient supply category every day, while 450 BTC issuances.
This trend combined with the trend of steady purchases from institutional investors raises a compelling question: Can this increased demand increase the price of Bitcoin to $1 million?
Bitcoin accumulation and convergence
The current Bitcoin ancient supply exceeds the total issuance (3.4 million BTC, worth $360 billion, at $107,000/BTC). This reflects strong holders’ convictions, reducing their time per day by less than 3%. The report predicts that the share could reach 20% by 2028 and that share could reach 25% by 2034, tightening available supplies.
Meanwhile, institutional investor capital is accelerating. According to Bitwise, Bitcoin inflow It is expected to reach $120 billion by 2025 and $300 billion in the basic case plan by 2026.
Different players drive this: nation-states may redistribute 5% of gold reserves ($161.7 billion, or 7.7% of supply), U.S. states adopt 30% ($19.6 billion), wealth management platform allocates 0.5% ($300 billion), and listed companies holdings ($117.8 billion). In the Bull case, inflows could exceed $426 billion, absorbing more than 4 million bitcoins (19% of the supply), further tightening liquidity.
This accumulation of institutions, along with the ancient supply growth, suggests that a large portion of the Bitcoin supply becomes non-liquid and may expand analyst price targets due to increased demand.
Related: Price Forecast 6/18: BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, DOGE, ADA, HYPE, SUI, BCH
Bitcoin to $1 million: Supply and Demand Papers
Each person reaches $1 million Bitcoin Need a market value of $21 trillion, a tenfold increase from the current $2.11 trillion 19,880,604 BTC miningaccounting for 94.66% of the 21 million total. Fixed supply and increasing liquidity can promote the next important milestone of BTC.
Historical trends following the halving event (2013, 2017, 2021) show the driving rally driven by supply growth and increased demand, which supports the argument that current dynamics may lead to similar results.
The impact of ancient supply was obvious, with 17% of the supply insufficient liquidity, expected to grow and reduce liquid supply. If institutional investors continue to accumulate, 30% of the supply may become non-liquid (6.3 million BTC) by 2026.
However, there are still some challenges. After the 2024 U.S. election, the ancient supply has dropped in 10% days, almost four times the historical average, and can be sold even for long-term holders during volatility. Similarly, the five-year holder supply fell by 39% in the post-election days, three times the typical rate, and is associated with lateral price action in Q1 2025.
This suggests that despite the strong liquidity trend, market conditions can trigger an increase in supply and potentially regulate prices.
However, Famous The $35 billion demand in 2024 involves the management of $60 trillion in client assets due to Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs’ avoidance policies. Its bear case is expected to have inflows of more than $150 billion, while cattle case is expected to have more than $426 billion, absorbing 4,269,000 BTC, highlighting the huge potential of demand.
Thus, the ancient supply of Bitcoin and the predicted inflow of institutions constitute an increasingly scarce narrative. While reaching $1 million is a strong goal, the current trajectory shows that it is a realistic goal.
Related: Norwegian crypto company K33 raises more money to buy up to 1,000 BTC
This article does not contain investment advice or advice. Every investment and trading move involves risks and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.
