Bitcoin
Prices rebounded nearly 10% from weekend lows, with key developments in traditional markets supporting cases of sustained earnings.
According to data source TradingView, the dollar index tracks green value for major fiat currencies, which dropped to its lowest level since February 2022. The decline is amid increasing calls for lowering the Federal Reserve rate in July and disappointing housing and consumer confidence data.
The weakening of US dollar debt (a global reserve currency) tends to alleviate financial conditions and increase the risk of increasing in financial markets.
“DXY (IS) is now at its lowest level since March 2022. Perspectives on global money supply growth and Bitcoin,” said Andre Dragosch, head of research, on X.
BTC and NVDA correlation
Meanwhile, NVIDIA shares (NVDA)This is all areas of AI and emerging technologies, up 4%.33% on Wednesday to a record $154.30.
NVDA and BTC both bottomed out at the end of 2022 and have been on an upward trend since then. As of writing, the 90-day correlation coefficient between NVDA and BTC was 0.80, indicating a strong positive correlation between the two assets.
The NVDA record high comes a day after Nasdaq futures form a bullish gold cross, indicating an ongoing risk rally.
New York teases recession
The yield, which is more sensitive to interest rate expectations in the U.S. two-year notes, fell to 3.76%, the lowest since May 2. Yields fell by 24 basis points this month. Meanwhile, the 10-year yield fell 16 basis points to 4.27%.
Thus, the expansion between the yields of 10 and 2 years has expanded in a steep movement called the yield curve.
Historically, the recession has begun, with the steep trend of yield and return curves over the past two years, as wealth consultant Kurt S. Altrichter pointed out on X.
“We’re not there yet, but we’re dancing on the edge. The difference in 10y-2y is bullish. If the 2y breakout is low, it means the Fed is out of control. Here’s your tip. Look at it carefully, look closely,” Otricht says.
Consumer expectation signals coming recession
Last month, consumer confidence dropped to 93 reads, down 5.4 points from May, with Republican respondents leading the decline, according to Data released by the conference committee on Tuesday.
More importantly, the expectation index representing the short-term outlook slipped to 69, well below the 80 threshold, often marking an upcoming recession.
Trader prices lower
These developments, plus Oil Price Slide And, the topic of July tax rates cut by some Fed officials is likely to prompt traders to price at the early tax rates cut by the Fed. According to CME’s FedWatch tool.
According to BloombergNow, from zero a week ago near zero, interest rate swaps are priced at about four basiss of the Federal Reserve meeting in July. In addition, traders expect the remaining four meetings this year to have 60 basis points, up from 45 basis points a week ago.
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