BTC’s price rally to July as derivatives market shruggs

Francisco Rodrigues (All time ET unless otherwise stated)

Bitcoin

Over the past 24 hours, it has increased by 0.9%. Records are closed monthly At the end of June. If historical data is any sign of future situations, July may drive this trend.

BTC has increased all but three Julys over the past 10 years, an average of 7%. Shop data. Further evidence comes from marketer Wintermute, which maps the average daily Bitcoin financing rate for spot returns since 2022 (which is a representative of investor sentiment). It is the only month for July to grow relatively strongly and have relatively soft emotions.

The notes shared by market makers with Coindesk, Bitcoin has returned more than 0.3% per day over the past three years, while the funds this month have been zero.

Of course, past performance doesn’t indicate the future, and the dollar’s ​​current weakness may be testing, as it is usually the opposite of Bitcoin. The DXY index, a measure of peer U.S. currency, is at a three-year low and is close to the death cross on a technical chart, which has been marked as The bottom since 2008. Withered Bitcoin?

Thursday’s U.S. salary report may provide some clues and help signal when the Fed may lower interest rates. Chairman Jerome Powell maintains central bank will “Waiting for learning” How tariffs shape inflation and put policies in dire straits.

US President Donald Trump’s July 9th Deadline for mutual tariffs Regarding the approach of major trading partners, the House will vote on what he calls a “big bill” which may Total $3.3 trillion The U.S. National Debt Act has been exaggerated after the Senate passed the thin Senate.

Most importantly, the treasury of the company is piled up. The publicly listed company purchased approximately 131,000 BTC in the second quarter, up 18% growth, surpassing the 8% of U.S. Spot-ETF Holdings. Stay alert!

What to see

• encryption
  • July 2: Stock of Rex-Osprey Solana Staking ETF (SSK) yes Expected To start trading on the CBOE BZX exchange, this makes it the first U.S. ETF to combine SOL price exposure with chain chain stock rewards.
  • July 15: Lynq yes Expected to be launched Its real-time, digital asset reconciliation network with interest is used in institutions. Lynq is built on Avalanche’s Layer 1 blockchain and powered by ARCA’s U.S. Fiscal Fund Stocks to enable instant settlement, continuous earnings accruals and improved capital efficiency.
• Macro
  • Day 3 of Day 3: ECB Central Bank Forum (Sintra, Portugal)
  • July 2, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global released data on Canadian manufacturing and service activities in June.
    • Manufacturing PMI last item. 46.1
  • July 3, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released June employment data.
    • Non-farm salary EST. 110k and previous article. 139k
    • Unemployment rate EST. 4.3% vs. the previous post. 4.2%
    • Government salary last. -1K
    • Manufacturing payroll. -6k vs. Previous. -8k
  • July 3, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor released unemployment insurance data for the week ending June 28.
    • Initial unemployment claim EST. 240k and the previous article. 236K
    • Continue to unemployment claims EST. 1960k and previous article. 1974K
  • July 3, 9 a.m.: Standard & Poor’s Global releases data on manufacturing and service activity for June.
    • Compound PMI previous article. 49.1
    • Serving PMI Prev. 49.6
  • July 3, 9:45 AM: S&P Global Version (Final) Data on manufacturing and service activities in the United States in June.
    • Compound PMI EST. 52.8 vs. Previous. 53
    • PMI service is. 53.1 vs. Previous article. 53.7
  • July 3, 10 am: Supply Management Institute (ism) Release June US Services Department data.
    • PMI service is. 50.5 vs. Previous article. 49.9
• income (Estimation based on fact set data)

Token Event

• Governance voting and phone calls
  • Gnosisdao is voting Updated partnership with Nethermind For the maintenance and development of GNOSIS chains, 750,000 DAI funds are proposed in the first year starting from June, an increase of 4% per year. The vote ended on July 2.
  • Radiant Dao is voting Potentially compensate users In the October 2024 hacker, their wallets were exhausted with unlimited token approval. If approved, the follow-up plan will outline the contract for Stablecoin’s conversion, claim arbitration and phased repayment. The vote ended on July 2.
  • Arbitration Voting Reduce the quorum of the constitution Thresholds range from 5% to 4.5% of voting tokens. This aims to reduce voter participation and help good support suggestions to pass easier without affecting non-constitutional proposals, which remain at 3%. The vote ends on July 4.
  • Polkadot Community is Voting On Launch non-customer Polkadot brand payment card “Bridge the gap between digital assets and daily expenditures in the Polcardo ecosystem.” The vote ended on July 9.
• Unlock
  • July 2: Essena (this) To unlock 0.67% of its circulating supply, it is worth $10.58 million.
  • July 11: Not variable to unlock 1.31% of its circular supply, worth $10.61 million.
  • July 12: Aptos unlocks 1.76% of its recycled supply, worth $51.69 million.
  • July 15: Starknet will unlock 3.79% of its recycled supply, worth $14.39 million.
  • July 15: SEI will unlock 1% of its circular supply, worth $15.63 million.
  • July 16: Arbitration is to unlock 1.87% of its recirculating supply, worth $31.76 million.
• Token release
  • July 4: Biswap (BSW)Stella, Komodo (KMD)Leverfi (lever)and LTO network (LTO) yes Insanity From binance.

Meeting

this Coindesk Policy and Regulation Meeting (formerly known as encryption state) It is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on September 10, allowing general lawyers, compliance officers and regulatory supervisors to meet with public officials responsible for encrypting legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Get a 10% discount on registration using code CDB10 until July 17.

Derivative Positioning

• BTC and ETH Futures Open Isport were flat, at $25 billion and $11 billion, respectively, indicating that traders lacked prices because of price trading and round-trip range.
• XRP’s open interest, along with flat to negative funding rates, raised a four-week high of $1.4 billion, suggests bias in bearish bets.
• SOL, BCH, SUI, XLM and SHIB markets also showed negative funding rates, while XMR showed bullish bias with a gap of nearly 20%.
• On Deribit, the risk reversal of BTC and ETH options continues to indicate a lack of obvious directional bias in the short-term and recent tenors, with a moderate bullish appearance since their expiration from September to October.

Market movement

• BTC sold for 1.62% from 4pm Tuesday, at $107,684.07 (24 hours: +1.09%)
• ETH rose 1.33% at $2,449.08 (24 hours: -0.36%)
• Coindesk 20 rose 1.36% to 3,007.13 (24 hours: -0.1%)
• Ether CESR compound discharge rate increases by 4 bps at 3%
• BTC’s funding rate is 0.006% (6.5328% annualized) About binance

• DXY rose 0.13% at 96.94
• Gold futures remain unchanged, $3,350.50
• Silver Futures rose 0.15% to $36.45
• Nikkei 225 closes 0.56% on 39,762.48
• Hang Seng closed 0.62% at 24,221.41
• FTSE rose 0.26% to 8,808.17
• EURO STOXX 50 rose 0.68% to 5,318.56
• DJIA closed 0.91% on Tuesday at 44,494.94
• S&P 500 closes 0.11%, at 6,198.01
• Nasdaq Composites closed 0.82% on 20,202.89
• S&P/TSX composite material closed 0.62% in 26,857.11
• S&P 40 Latin America closes 0.24% at 2,701.08
• U.S. treasury rate rose 3.6 basis points to 4.285% in 10 years
• E-Mini S&P 500 Futures rose 0.12% at 6,256.25
• E-Mini NASDAQ-100 Futures Not Changed 22,710.50
• E-Mini Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.15% to 44,873.00

Bitcoin Statistics

• BTC Advantages: 65.65 (+0.17%)
• Ethereum to Bitcoin Ratio: 0.02277 (0.04%)
• Hash (7-day moving average):878 EH/s
• hashprice (point): $58.44
• Total Cost: 4.19 BTC / $446,034
• CME Futures Open Interest: 146,945
• BTC price is gold: 32.3 ounces.
• BTC and gold market cap: 9.10%

Technical Analysis

• Bitcoin Cash has recently outperformed BTC and other major cryptocurrencies.
• Still, it is locked in the range locked on the current line of the Highs in April 2024 and December 2024 and the lows in August 2024 and April 2025.
• Potential breakthroughs will confirm a long-term bullish momentum shift.

Crypto Stock

• strategy (MSTR): Closed Tuesday, $373.30 (-7.65%)+2.98%, $384.44 pre-sale
• Coinbase Global (coin): Closed at $335.33 (-4.33%)+2.54%, $343.85
• Circle (CRCL): Closed at US$192.53 (+6.2%)+0.97%, $194.40
• Galaxy Numbers (glxy): Closed at $21.31 (-2.69%)+3.05%, $21.96
• Mara Holdings (Mara): Closed at $15.70 (+0.13%)+2.42%, $16.08
• Riot prevention platform (riot): Closed at $11.27 (-0.27%)+3.19%, $11.63
• Core Science (CORZ): Closed at $17.25 (+1.05%)+0.12%, $17.27
• CleanSpark (clsk): Closed at $11.08 (+0.45%)+2.89%, $11.40
• Coinshares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miner ETF (WGMI): Closed at $23.09 (+1.54%)
• Semler Science (SMLR): Closed at US$35.42 (-8.57%)+3.08%, $36.51
• Exodus Movement (exit): Closed at $29 (+0.59%)-2.76%, $28.20

ETF Stream

Spot BTC ETF

• Daily Net Flow: -$342.2 million
• Cumulative Net Flow: US$48.61 billion
• BTC totals approximately 1.25 million

Point ETH ETF

• Net daily traffic: $40.7 million
• Cumulative Net Flow: US$4.27 billion
• ETH total holdings ~411 million

source: Farside Investors

Overnight flow

Daily pictures

• The amount of ETH deposited by the Coinbase Layer 2 blockchain through Crypto Bridges has crashed to 831,980 from $1.81 million a month ago.
• The reason for the Exodus is not yet clear.

When you sleep

• US sources say (Reuters): Iran loaded naval minerals onto ships following the initial Israeli air strike, a move interpreted as serious preparation to prevent the severe straits of Hormuz.
• Visa, Mastercard competition tames $253 billion in crypto threat (Bloomberg): With Stablecoin legislation prepared to approve the president’s approval, Visa and MasterCard are stepping up integration efforts to make tokens pose not a threat, but as a promoter of new use cases.
• Bitcoin CME Futures Advanced Slide Showing Institutions’ Appetites Falling (Coindesk): According to a 10x study, Bitcoin’s CME futures premium has dropped to its lowest level since October 2023. Combined with negative funding rates, this indicates bearish sentiment and reduced arbitrage activity.
• Stablecoin pushes to gain ground in new challenges in China. (Bloomberg): The latest remarks from the governor of China’s central bank restore interests to Stablecoins for global payments. Robin Xing of Morgan Stanley proposed Hong Kong as a testing ground for offshore Yuan tokens.
• Deutsche Bank’s DWS, Galaxy, Mobiles Risk Introduction to Germany’s Regulated Stablecoin (Coindesk): The Allunity joint venture has been licensed by Bafin to launch Eurau, a mica-compliant Euro Stablecoin that will be fully supported and provide institutional-level transparency through certification and regulatory reporting.
• Trump said the trade deal was easy. Japan proved him wrong. (Wall Street Journal): Japanese officials say any trade deal must lower U.S. industry-specific tariffs, noting that failure to obtain relief could trigger a political rebound ahead of Japan’s July 20 House of Lords election.

In the ether