Hangzhou, China – June 30, 2025 – A worker worked on a production seminar at a steel structure factory in Hangzhou, Zhengming Province, China on June 30, 2025.
CFOTO | Future Publishing | Getty Images
In June, factory activity in China unexpectedly resumed growth in export-oriented manufacturers, a private survey showed, and a survey on Tuesday showed the country stood out due to trade disruptions.
CAIXIN/S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) scored 50.4, beat Reuters’ median estimate of 49.0 and rebounded 48.3 MayThis is the worst contraction since September 2022.
Private surveys appear to be different from the country’s official PMI report Release on Mondaywhich shows that although manufacturing activity has contracted for the third consecutive month in a row compared to the previous two months.
According to Goldman Sachs, PMI officially took larger samples of more than 3,000 companies and was more closely aligned with industrial output, while the Caixin survey covered more than 500, most export-oriented companies. The official investigation was conducted at the end of the month, while the Caixin investigation was conducted at the middle of the month.
Chinese exporters have tried to avoid using our tariffs, which are expected to rise when they expire in mid-August. It is not clear whether the parties will reach an agreement to further expand the probation.
So far, the country’s export goods have been relatively strong in the past two months as exporter hubs are alternative markets, especially Southeast Asian countries and EU countries.
Its export to the United States Slump 34.5% in May Starting a year ago, it was more than 21% in April.
However, economists at Morgan Stanley noted that export momentum to the U.S. and other destinations in recent weeks as frontload activity began to gradually decline.
Neo Wang, chief Chinese economist and strategist at Evercore ISI, said Beijing and Washington may be closer to the resolution in the fentanyl dispute, which could lead the U.S. to lower tariffs on Chinese goods by 20%.
“Everything we’ve seen so far points to further downgrades,” he said in a report.
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