Singapore and Thailand Recently, Polymarket is prohibited from PolyMarket within their respective jurisdictionsIt is believed that the website is just another gambling platform.
On the surface, This argument seems to be logicalEssence Polymarket is included in the sports forecast market, making it look like a global competitor authorized sports betting.
After all, even the most severe critics in the prediction market have acknowledged that the investment mechanism has some value in terms of hedging elections, but the results of sports competitions do not have the same substantial impact as the election or war.
However, Aaron Brogan, New York cryptocurrency lawyer, believes that, on the surface, the predicting market is just the web3 version of gambling arguments.
“If you are a gambling product licensed by the country, then you are standing on the side of betting. Broon said,” You are essentially making bets with your users. You are booking bets … and provide users with certain odds. “Whether you make money depends on the odds you set.”
In contrast, PolyMarket and Kalshi predicting markets as neutral intermediary agencies, matching transactions without favors, making money through transaction fees.
“Under such circumstances, you will not watch gambling as the market in this case, which fundamentally changes the incentive measures involved and the products are different.” He pointed out that predicting the market platform platform It will not prohibit its best users. Similarly, the casino expels the card, because it will stifle the mathematical advantage of the casino.
“It is predicted that the market is not gambling because their structure is not like this,” Brlogan said. “They are tools for understanding, hedging and creating public products. This is why they are fundamentally different.”
It is a difficult task to get online gaming licenses in the United States. People may want to know why new players in the field, such as Drawt KingS or MGM, and other old -fashioned companies that are then open to online sports betting business. State level.
Broon said the key legal difference lies in the regulatory framework. In the United States, the forecast market registered as a designated contract market (DCM) has been regulated by the Federal Commodity Trading Law through the “Commodity Transaction Law”, which is preferred by the State Gambling Law.
“Federal law in the United States is preferred in state law,” Broccan explained. “The” Commodity Trading Law “contains a specific clause that prohibits the state from supervising the derivatives registered by the federal. If you register in the federal, you will not be able to supervise you in various states.”
Kalshi seems to be full of confidence in this argument. As a forecasting market platform, the platform actively seek to register on the commodity futures and trading committees, and strives for the original attempt Prevent the prediction market related to elections – Recently launched Super bowl betting market.
But this may not work for its competitors.
“For example, Polymarket did not register in the United States, so it can be said that states can find its founders,” You have been providing convenience for sports gaming, which is a felony in this state, and then file a legal lawsuit. Its federal status does not face this problem, “Brlogan said.
Although PolyMarket and Kalshi are the two most well -known names in the field, many other new entrants are following them.
One of them is Crypto.com, cryptocurrency exchanges, I recently launched Crypto.com Submit sports activities after CFTC as a DCM self -certification.
Broon explained that the key is that if CFTC does not take action within 24 hours after submitting the self -proof document, the applicant can see it as a green light.
“If these can spread, and if the Commodity Futures Trading Commission does not take action (they have not taken action), they will eventually eat lunch of these sports gaming companies. This is an industry worth $ 21 billion, and this new product It will become better, “he concluded.
