President Donald Trump was unyondly Will bring his tariffs Factory job Back to American Shores. According to the economists of the Bank of America, manufacturers will probably make higher import taxes to be due to the business in the USA, but the so -called new shift could stimulate companies to rely more robots than people on the assembly line.
A lack of qualified workers and high costs remains great Obstacles Bofa warns as a company. Automation could be the key to unlocking AwakePossibly increasing the sluggish productivity of American manufacturers without increasing employment sensibly.
According to the current information, a slowdown in this sector must be growed report from the Bank of America Institute. New orders for the manufacture of long -lasting goods fell in April, while the famous index for purchasing managers has signaled a contraction since March.
The internal customer data from Bofa show that the deposit growth of manufacturers has also decreased.
“It is possible that these (tariffs) support the dynamics and may be able to reverse part of this slowdown. Especially for certain lower scenes within the industry, ”said the author of the report of the report, Taylor Bowley Assets. “However, there are tariff costs and work problems.”
Redesigns were everything Fury In Corporate America after Trump’s first trade war with China and Covid 19-Pandemie-hopped risks for global supply chains. The bidea era chips and the reduction in inflation are now now, meanwhile, meanwhile, strongly subsidized Companies that are ready to produce semiconductor and clean energy technology in the USA
While the US production is only 8% of the total employment, the weight has created 2 million jobs after a May in the past 15 years note From the Bofa economists. Half of these new positions have been found in the past five years, although the trend has slowed down since the highlight in 2022.
In A Opinion poll Of 56 analysts throughout the bank, which cover around 1,200 companies worth over 38 trillion US dollars in market capitalization, production will continue to return to the United States if the tariffs are still high. The following industry and manufacturing expect the greatest shift to the USA
Specialists are missing in the USA
However, there are still obstacles to return to the States. In the Bofa survey, 54% of the analysts stated that problems with specialists for companies would be a significant obstacle.
Higher labor costs are one of the main reasons why the manufacturers primarily pulled away from the United States, said Bowley. While A 2024 survey From the Cato Institute, 80% of the Americans believed believe It would be better to work individually in a factory.
If companies have difficulty filling positions, they are forced to find out how they can improve productivity without hiring people.
“And there this conversation comes into play for automation and productivity,” she said.
Two thirds of the BOFA survey surveyed said that each production change in the United States would require much more automation than an offshore factory. This makes more advanced industries the best candidates to return to the USA, according to Bofa economists such as the car assembly and high-end furniture. “Millions and millions of people who screw in small, small screws to make iPhones”, as commercial secretary Howard Lutnick recommended? Not like that much.
In the meantime Lutnick’s ability to continue Trade agreement could Matter most to small companies. They make up 98% of American production. after To the US small businesses, and many rely on cheap imports.
“Many of them depend on a certain part – for example, to complete their manufacturing process, which is simply not made in Germany,” said Bowley.
Therefore, the uncertainty of the tariff description for smaller manufacturers makes the expenditure of the planning capital particularly difficult, even if their products become more competitive in Germany. In view of the profit margins and productivity that other industries in the United States remain, the transfer of price systems to consumers is the obvious reaction. However, if companies have to absorb some of the costs to keep customers, there are other potential options.
“This aspect is a kind of double -edged sword for smaller companies,” she said.
However, sales are expected in the coming months, said Bowley. But companies could start to feel the squeezer, added when the inventory runs low in the second half of the year.
