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On the U.S. economy, the price is higher. this Latest inflation data On Friday, the government showed a bigger rise than forecast. Nike said on Thursday that the fact was hit by $1 billion due to tariffs and facts Price increases have not been implemented yet.
In the U.S. economy, in the distribution network that manages inventory, there are fewer overall projects due to the trade war, but more commodities are rising in price.
“We are now seeing multiple customers getting higher and higher prices,” said Ryan Martin, its president of logistics distribution.
Martin said that while price tags were placed on manufacturers’ goods, his company has begun reselling tickets “in use millions of units of products for many customers” over the past month, from clothing to consumer products in warehouses for final delivery or immediate shipment to the store.
He said that depending on the product, the price increase ranges from 8% to 15%.
“This is creating additional inflation,” Martin said. This is also happening in e-commerce, although price changes are reflected online, not on the product, he said.
A new survey of footwear distributors and retailers in the U.S. in the second quarter showed that 55% of respondents expect average retail prices to rise 6%-10% in 2025 due to tariffs.
Martin said the last time he saw this kind of resale ticket was during the pandemic, which was much higher at that time.
“At that time, everything in transportation, labor and product quantity became more and more expensive,” he said. “We’re seeing an increase in all products including food and beverages,” he said. “The repricing is between 30%-40%.
Not only is it more expensive, but it also has less inventory
Retailers and manufacturing customers are managing inventory by shrinking SKU counts and importing fewer SKUs due to current concerns about trade uncertainty and consumer softness. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that GDP fell by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2025.
“The overall inventory footprint is small,” Martin said. “You’re seeing three months of inventory on hand with six months.”
Supply chain data from the warehouse industry and the increasing number of air-carrying containers at ports is increasingly mild during peak seasons (stock inventory for summer return to campus and holiday shopping periods).
According to the Logistics Manager Index, warehouse inventory levels fell by 6% from a month.
Zachary Rogers, associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State University, said that the first half of June was compared to later this month, and the growth in inventory began to slow down, indicating that the growth in early June was temporary. “We haven’t seen any significant changes in shipping because of how long it takes to move through the system,” Rogers said. “The capacity of the warehouse has indeed changed from a mild contraction to a mild expansion.”
Data for the entire month of June has not yet arrived, but Rogers said the results are highly unlikely to change in any meaningful way. “We’re far enough that we basically know where they’ll end up going,” he said.
Rogers explained that the mild expansion seen earlier this month was consistent with containers handled by the port. U.S. importers have been reluctant to push forward comprehensive maritime orders due to tariffs. For many retailers, the 50% tariff on Chinese goods is still too high even though the high-priced president has been paused recently Donald Trump It has threatened Chinese goods.
West Coast Port is now seeing Small bump In the container to start your vacation. However, according to the port of Los Angeles Optimized Port, which tracks marine trade destined to ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, with imports set to fall below July 2024.
“It’s worth noting because we want to see numbers rise as July enters August,” Rogers said.
On the East Coast, things vary.
The Port of New York and New Jersey, the largest port on the East Coast, released monthly container data for May on Thursday, showing that the port processed 774,698 twenty-foot equivalent units or TEUS.
“Of course, tariffs won’t affect anywhere on us as we do on the West Coast, because we are not as dependent on China as our West Coast counterparts,” New York Ports and New Jersey Director Bethann Rooney told CNBC. “We’ve seen an increase in numbers from Europe, Southeast Asia, India and Vietnam. I don’t expect a significant increase in July, but we’ll see strong numbers.”
But Rooney added that the shift is relatively small in terms of supply chain procurement in Europe and Southeast Asia. “We’re seeing a possible change of 1% year by year,” she said. “Cumulatively, this has an impact. But we certainly haven’t seen a huge change in routing, although it’s clear that many beneficial cargo owners (US companies) are changing their procurement or diversifying their procurement.”
Air transport containers sit longer in the port
Another major indicator of future freight orders is the movement of air freight. In order to keep exports flowing, trade in empty containers is required. CNBC’s analysis of empty containers showed that no large pile of empty leaves Los Angeles and Long Beach ports returned to refill.
Air freight is a priority for returning to Asia during the pandemic, so it can be reinjected and exported back to the United States.
“The fact that so many empty containers are still on the port also shows that importers do not expect our normal peak August September season,” Rogers said.
Due to a wave in the port, these commodities eventually moved to retailers in September and October, which will see some activity at the wholesale/distribution level throughout the third quarter. But Rogers added: “At this point, though, it seems unlikely that we will see a normal peak season.”
“Even at the current inventory levels, we already have a lot of stocks, and with the tariffs that still exist, I hope that imports, especially the manufacturing-related imports, will be lower than we expected at the beginning of the year,” he said.
Another warning sign is that ocean freight rates on transPacific routes from the Far East to the United States have dropped on average since the earlier surge in June. Peter Sand, chief shipping analyst at Xeneta, said the average spot rate has dropped by 39% since June 1 from the Far East to the West Coast of the United States. “The turnaround to the West Coast of the United States is a key battlefield for operators, so after 145% lowering tariffs, the spot rate is getting faster and faster when they prioritize returning capabilities to this trade,” he said.
Sand said it was only a matter of time before shippers do the same thing on the East Coast of the United States, and the on-site rates began to drop sharply.
Economists are paying close attention to this pullback in orders. In terms of imports, consumer goods continued to decline after falling by $33 billion in April, Oxford Economics wrote in a recent note. “This part is offset by the benefits of automobiles, while the rest of the categories are mostly unchanged. We expect the import trend to decrease over the course of the year as effective tariff rates remain higher and the economy slows down,” it said.
“Because of all the tax talks, indecision is the best decision for shippers right now,” Martin said, adding: “No one knows what will happen tomorrow or understands the cost structure. It’s better to have a lean list in this case.”
Correction: According to the Logistics Manager Index, warehouse inventory levels fell by 6% from a month. Earlier versions of this article incorrectly stated the name of the index.
