The buildups in Gaza and Lebanon are likely to hold for now, although they will be tested to their limits at the weekend as all sides look to avoid full-scale fighting for at least several weeks, analysts said.
In southern Lebanon, Israeli troops remained in position Amid Israeli claims that Hezbollah broke its own promise to leave the area. In Gaza, Hamas failed to free a female hostage that Israel had hoped would be freed on Saturday, prompting Israel delay the agreed return displaced Palestinians to their homes in northern Gaza.
But even as each side accused the other of reneging on their deals, analysts said both Israel and its opponents had reasons to remain flexible and temporarily overlook the other’s transgressions.
Hezbollah, though angry at Israel for keeping troops in southern Lebanon, would risk a devastating Israeli counterattack if it resumed its rocket strikes on Israeli cities. Hamas wants to retain power in Gaza and risks losing it if war returns. And Israel must maintain the current arrangement in Gaza long enough to free at least two dozen more hostages. Israeli leaders also appeared eager to placate President Trump, who was campaigning promise to keep the peace In the Middle East.
Israel and Hamas appeared to illustrate their desire to extend the Gaza ceasefire, resolving the weekend crisis by nearly midnight on Sunday. The government of Qatar, a mediator between the parties, said female hostage, Arbel Yehudhe would be freed this week along with two others who would be extradited ahead of schedule. In return, Israel said it would allow displaced Palestinians Return to northern Gaza on Monday morning.
As for Lebanon, The White House announced That the ceasefire would be extended until February 18, although there was no immediate comment from Israel or Hezbollah. The Lebanese Prime Minister’s Office confirmed the extension.
Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. negotiator for Middle East peace talks, said: “They’re going to get in the next few weeks — beyond that guesswork.”
“These are not agreements between the United States and Switzerland. They are agreements that depend on each side, which gives the other some discretion and margin for maneuver,” he added. “That’s their weakness, but also their strength.
This lying-in room eventually allowed the two ruts to survive the weekend, even though Israeli troops shot and they killed people in both Lebanon and Gaza who were attempting to return to areas still controlled by Israel.
Lebanon’s health ministry said 22 people were killed by Israeli fire in southern Lebanon and the Palestinian Authority’s news agency said one person was killed in Gaza as large crowds in both locations gathered near Israeli troops and demanded to go home.
But on Monday morning it seemed that the resignation in Gaza had loosened. In Lebanon, Hezbollah issued a statement praising residents trying to return and calling on foreign powers to force Israel to withdraw. But Hizballah did not advance its rocket fire.
Analysts say Hezbollah is unlikely to risk further losses while its leadership is decimated and its benefactor Iran weakened. The group’s main weapons delivery route, through Syria, was also blocked in December when Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, an ally of Hezbollah, released rebels.
Hezbollah commanders “still have some missiles, they have some weapons, they can do something,” said Hanin Ghaddar, a Lebanon analyst at the Washington Institute for the Middle East, a foreign affairs research group.
“But it’s suicidal if they do that because they know that any kind of attack by Hezbollah in Israel means that Israel will take the opportunity to come back full blast and destroy whatever is left of them,” Ms Ghaddar added.
Hezbollah is also likely to be wary of losing support among its Shia Muslim base, particularly in next year’s parliamentary elections, Ms. Ghaddar said. Lebanon’s Shia community paid the biggest price for Hezbollah’s decision to go War with Israel In October 2023 in solidarity with its ally Hamas. Shiite villages and towns in southern Lebanon bored the onslaught from Israel’s subsequent air campaign and ground invasion.
“If the Shiites don’t vote for them, it’s the end of Hezbollah,” said Ms. Ghaddar, author of a book about Hezbollah’s relationship with its base. “They can’t really do anything unless they know 100 percent that the Shia community will support it.”
Because Hezbollah is less likely to continue fighting, the Gaza ceasefire is seen as the younger of the two pipelines.
But its biggest stress test is not expected until early March, when Hamas and Israel must decide whether to extend the arrangement beyond the initial 42-day ceasefire.
For now, Israel has signaled that it wants to maintain the ceasefire to keep the flow of hostages going. However, an extension would require both sides to agree to a permanent end to the war – a bridge that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seemed reluctant to cross. Mr Netanyahu’s coalition government relies on far-right lawmakers who seek permanent Israeli control of Gaza, and his administration could collapse if the war ends with Hamas still in charge.
The terms of the agreement allow for some flexibility. The truce may continue beyond the 42-day mark if both sides are still negotiating whether to make the arrangement permanent.
But Israeli officials say they will not remain locked in endlessly fruitless negotiations, especially if Hamas stops releasing hostages. And Hamas is unlikely to keep the hostages, its main bargaining chip, without an Israeli promise to permanently end hostilities.
“Hamas wants a ceasefire, but not at any price,” said Mkhaimar Abusada, a Palestinian political scientist based in Gaza. “They want a truce that ends the war.
Much could depend on President Trump’s willingness to cajole Mr. Netanyahu into a more permanent truce. Mr Trump’s private messages to the Israeli prime minister were crucial in forging the initial phase, but it remains to be seen whether the US president will maintain that position after several weeks.
“If Netanyahu succeeds in convincing Trump of the need to renew the war, there will likely be a renewal of the war,” Mr. Abusada said. “If Trump keeps his promise that he wants no wars and wants more peace — whether it’s in Gaza, Ukraine, or around the world — that’s a different matter.”
