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A decade ago, I asked officers from the New York Federal Reserve if I could look into their gold reserves. It rejected the point empty.
The reason? Fed officials have long been proud to have The largest gold vault in the world, 80 feet dug in Manhattan’s basic rock. But they prefer to keep it discreetly, partly because many of the 507,000 bars of the vault belong to countries like Germany and Italy. Silence was literally golden.
Now, however, a non -matching note was sounded. In the past few weeks in Germany and Italy politicians have requested The return of their gold bars worth an estimated 245 billion USD. So others have. “We are very concerned that (US President Donald) Trump manipulates the independence of the Federal Reserve Bank,” explains the taxpayers’ association in Europe.
Neither the Fed nor the European governments seem to act, and there are no signs that Bullion is moved to the east. On the contrary gold flooded in America, not off Since the election of Trump, the US government agencies, such as private investors, may have speculated in stock (although there is no public proof of this).
In any case, it is undeniable that these return calls are a sign of spreading distrust. The reason why these bars were primarily placed in New York vaults is that America’s allies have so far assumed that Washington was a responsible leader of the West-and the financial system based in dollars.
Now, however, pay in the Trump team – including Stephen MiranChairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, and Scott Bessent, finance minister – draw against the “Costs” of this system. The question that investors have to ask is therefore what other countries could do if trade wars also produce capital battles.
This debate is already underway in Asia because investors are looking for diversification. A sign is the increase in gold purchases. One is that youngest unusual price movements In the markets in Hong Kong, the reluctance to buy dollar assets.
In the meantime, Chinese officials welcome the climb Use of the Renminbi In the creation of trade and the development of a cross-border interbank payment system (CIPS) to challenge the Swift interbank payment system controlled by the USA.
Investors must also observe this so-called MBridge initiativeA cross -border Digital Bank Digital Currency Project, which was launched in 2023 by the bank for international settlements. Last year Washington forced the Until it retreated and let China under control. I suspect this is a goal of the United States.
So far, Europe has been quite passive. However, figures like François Heisbourg, an important European consultantUrge preparation for a “post -aerican Europe”. And although this has already triggered promise of higher military expenditure, the focus is now also shifted to “geoeconomy” or the idea that Stateecraft must drive industrial policy ahead.
However, analysts like Elmar Hellendoorn in the Atlantic Council want to go on with a policy “Geofinanz” to. After all, Europe is susceptible because it is not only based on doll financing, but is also packed by speculative capital flows due to the financing of its economy.
For example, “large parts of the European economy now have a strong influence if not the direct control of Wall Street companies, which are ultimately subject to the US laws and the financial state arts in Washington,” he is annoyed. In fact, Enrico Letta, the former Italian Prime Minister, Fears that Europe becomes a “financial colony” of the United States.
Can that change? The European Commission takes baby steps in this direction by accelerating the efforts to create a single one European capital market. Central banks across Europe are also developing cross -border digital currencies and the European Central Bank itself Build a digital euro. This hits a fascinating political competition with Washington, which instead based on dollar stable coins-partly because of better Believe that this will create trillion dollars new new ones Demand for government bonds.
However, these efforts still seem to be far too shy in order to actually create a “global euro moment”. Christine Lagarde, ECB President, cited. And that seems unlikely if a crisis does not apply that the market loss of market in the dollar (maybe perhaps Because of fiscal jitter) or extreme aggression in the USA towards Europe.
Therefore, this is important in Manhattan Gold Vaults: If such crises ever occur, it is easy to imagine that a scenario (at best) will insist on it Securities for dollar swaps Or (in the worst case) as an instrument for political compulsion.
In turn, Germany’s Bundesbank reduces the risk – at least in public. “We have no doubt that the New York Fed is a trustworthy and reliable partner for the safe preservation of our gold reserves,” says the FT. Almost certainly. However, the debate shows that once unimaginable scenarios are at least presented. Receiving gold is a rational step.
