Gold’s historic rally brings back BTC’s “store of value” debate

James van Straten (unless otherwise stated)

Recent market turmoil may make gold a bragging right to a “store of value”, while “digital gold” struggles, at least so far.

Gold futures for April delivery exceeded $3,000 for the first time, marking a historic milestone Precious metals. Spot Gold’s ounce aggregate is just under $3,000, up 15% year to date, while its digital counterpart, Bitcoin (BTC), is struggling – down 12% this year, hovering around $80,000.

This difference emphasizes the role of gold as the ultimate haven asset in the current economic environment.

Since mid-February, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced only three days of inflows, causing net inflows to drop from $40 billion to about $35 billion. Eric Balchunassenior analyst at Bloomberg ETF.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has entered the correction territory, down 10% and is working to recoup it 200-day moving average amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Further tariffs by former President Trump on a stalled ceasefire negotiations between President Putin and Ukraine have exacerbated global uncertainty.

Andre Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise in Europe, attributed record highs in gold and a U.S. stock sell-off to a rise in short- and medium-term inflation expectations, coupled with a decline in consumer confidence.

“Recent gold rally in new historical highs may reflect an increase in inflation expectations and a broader security,” Dragosch explained. “In fact, both short- and medium-term inflation expectations in the University of Michigan consumer survey have risen to years of highs. U.S. consumers are increasingly concerned about inflation, which may be due to the Trump administration’s new tariff policies.”

He further noted: “At the same time, U.S. stocks have been selling due to these trade policy-driven economic uncertainties, and the rising risk of recession due to slowing labor markets. Both factors have greatly promoted the price of gold.”

What to see

• encryption:
• Macro
  • March 14, 8:00 a.m.: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) released data on producer price inflation for January.
    • PPI mother last. 1.48%
    • PPI Yoy Prev. 9.42%
  • March 14, 10:00 a.m.: University of Michigan’s March (US) Consumer Emotion (Preliminary) Index. 63.1 vs. Previous. 64.7.
  • March 14, 3:00 pm: The Argentina National Institute of Statistics and Census released February inflation data.
    • Inflation rate mom est. 2.4% vs. Previous. 2.2%
    • Inflation rate yoy est. 66.8 vs. Previous article. 84.5%
  • March 16, 10:00 pm: China’s National Bureau of Statistics released its February employment data.
    • Unemployment rate rises. 5.1%
• income (Estimation based on fact set data)
  • March 14: BIT Digital (BTBT), Pre-market, $ -0.05
  • March 24 (TBC): Galaxy Digital Holdings (TSE: GLXY), $0.38

Token Event

• Governance voting and phone calls
  • Apecoin Dao is discussing Establish ape-based In Lhasa, China Tibet Autonomous Region. It’s also being discussed Create ape manaims to provide the BAYC community with “easy to use tools to create personalized websites”.
  • Aave Dao is discussing Lan extended horizon, A licensed instance of the AAVE agreement that allows institutions to “access to the unlicensed StableCoin liquidity when the issuer’s requirements are met”.
  • Balancer Dao is discussing deployment Balancer V3 on OP Mainnet.
  • March 14: Cow Dao votes to the organization end the legal structure of 4 entities.
  • March 14 at 10:00:00:00:00:00:00:00:00:00:00:00:00:00:00:00:00:00:00:00:00:00:00:00:00:00:00:00:00:00:00:00:00:00:00:00:00:00:00:00:0 x Space Session
• Unlock
  • March 14: Starknet (Strk) unlocks 2.33% of its circular supply, worth $11.15 million.
  • March 15: SEI (SEI) unlocks 1.19% of its recycled supply, worth $10.06 million.
  • March 16: Arbitration (ARB) to release 2.1% of its recirculating supply, worth $32.29 million.
  • March 18: FastToken (FTN) to release 4.66% of its recirculating supply, worth $79.8 million.
  • March 21: Unchanged (IMX) unlocks 1.39% revolving supply, worth $12.91 million.
  • March 23: Metars Genesis (MRS) releases 11.87% of its recycled supply, worth $102.6 million.
  • March 23: Mantra (OM) unlocks 0.51% of its circular supply, worth $31.2 million.
• Token list
  • March 18: The paws (paws) will be listed on Bybit.
  • March 31: binance Drister USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC and PAXG.

Meeting

Token talk

Oliver Knight

• During Altcoins’ otherwise soft day, Hyperliquid’s original token is leading the package, up 9.5% over the past 24 hours. The increase is due to the cumulative number of diversified exchanges this month exceeding $1 trillion, which was worth $4.8 billion in the past day alone.
• For other Defi tokens, such as Aave, Lido and Python, it cannot be said that they have been down 19% to 21% over the past seven days after failing to recover from a market-wide plunge over the weekend.
• A trader Profitable $108K After buying the base Memecoin Doginme on Thursday, Coinbase listed the tokens on Friday, which inspired 150% of the rally.

Derivative Positioning

• According to Coinglass, the price of Bitcoin rose from below $80,000 to $82,895 this morning, reaching a bunch of short liquidation leverage worth $52.1 million. The next important liquidation leverage level is $79,760, holding a liquidation worth $41.9 million.
• Of assets with public interest of more than $100 million, ChainLink has the highest 1D percentage growth rate, up 35.8% to $409.5 million. Pnut, Near Protocol, Stellar and Trump finished the top five, with their open interest rising 19.7%, 15.8%, 14.8% and 11.8%. Open interest in the Layer 1 network SEI (SEI) declined the highest, down 17.2% to $101 million.
• In Deribit’s Bitcoin options market, calling options at a strike price of $100,000 has the highest open rate, with a nominal value of $1.5 billion, followed by $1.35 billion in open dividend stocks, strike at $120,000. However, the putter ratio at the moment is 0.52 marks a clear voting right, with the largest stands contract holding $800 million and $700 million in public interest at exercise prices of $80,000 and $75,000, respectively.

Market changes:

• BTC is up 2.93% from 4pm Thursday, at $82,739.17 (24 hours: -0.57%)
• ETH rose 2.38%, $1,890.23 (24 hours: -0.55%)
• Coindesk 20 rose 3.36% to 2,592.81 (24 hours: -0.14%)
• The comprehensive discharge rate of the Ethernet CESR dropped by 17 bps to 2.99%
• BTC’s financing rate is 0.0025% (2.79% annually)

• DXY remains unchanged at 103.88
• Gold rose 0.71% at $3,000.95/oz
• Silver rose 0.83% to $33.97/oz
• Nikkei 225 off +0.72% at 37,053.10
• Hang Seng Close +23,959.98 2.12%
• FTSE rose 0.49% to 8,584.53
• EURO STOXX 50 rose 0.69% to 5,365.00
• DJIA closed -1.3% on Thursday at 40,813.57
• S&P 500 closed – 1.39% at 5,521.52
• Nasdaq closes -1.96%, at 17,303.01
• S&P/TSX composite index closed on 24,203.23 -0.9%
• S&P 40 Latin America closes +0.73%, at 2,343.21
• U.S. treasury rate rose by 2 BP to 4.3% in 10 years
• E-Mini S&P 500 futures rose 0.67% to 5,564.75
• E-Mini NASDAQ-100 futures rose 0.9% to 19,421.50
• E-Mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures rose 0.42% to 41,036.00

Bitcoin Statistics:

• BTC Advantage: 61.82 (0.26%)
• Ethereum to Bitcoin Ratio: 0.02288 (-0.48%)
• Hash (7-day moving average): 825 EH/s
• HashPrice (spot): $47.3
• Total Cost: 5.55 BTC / $456,716
• CME Futures Open Interest: 144,785 BTC
• BTC price in gold: 27.7 ounces
• BTC and gold market cap: 7.86%

Technical Analysis

• Bitcoin has rebounded for a 50-day weekly EMA, a significant level of support in the past uptrends. In previous cycles, this contact point usually results in a consolidation phase that lasts 6 to 9 weeks before momentum is restored.
• For Bulls, maintaining weekly close above the 50-day EMA is crucial, as sustained price action below this level may indicate a deeper weakness. Additionally, retraction of the annual Open (consistent with previous range lows) will strengthen bullish beliefs.
• Without this recycling, any short-term bounce could potentially turn into a bearish retest, strengthening the segmentation of the market structure over the weekly timeframe.

Crypto Stock

• Strategy (MSTR): Closed Thursday, $263.26 (+0.27%), the previous market rose 3.34% to $272.04
• Coinbase Global: Closed at $177.49 (-7.43%), up 2.89% to $182.62
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): Chaable closes at $16.62 (-5.03%)
• Mara Holdings (Mara): Closed at $12.16 (-7.25%), up 3.37% to $12.57
• Riot Platform (RIOT): Closed at $7.31 (-6.88%), up 2.74%, $7.51
• Core Science (CORZ): Closed at $8.66 (-3.24%), down 2.89%, $8.91
• CleanSpark (CLSK): Closed at $7.69 (-5.06%), up 3.25% at $7.94
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miner ETF (WGMI): $14.57 (-4.71%) Close
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): Closed at $32.62 (-2.92%)
• Exod: Closed at $26.08 (-4.92%), down 3.6% to $25.14

ETF Stream

SPOT BTC ETF:

• Daily Net Flow: -$135.2 million
• Cumulative Net Flow: US$35.35 billion
• The total BTC holdings are approximately 1115 million.

Point ETH ETF

• Daily Net Flow: -$73.6 million
• Cumulative Net Flow: US$2.58 billion
• The total ETH holdings are approximately 3.545 million.

source: Farside Investors

Overnight flow

Daily pictures

• With gold’s new all-time high of $3,000, the gold/BTC ratio has reached 0.037, the highest level since the November 5 U.S. election.

When you sleep

• Sources say Russia relies on cryptocurrencies for oil trade. (Reuters): Some Russian oil companies reportedly used cryptocurrencies to bypass sanctions and simplified the renminbi and rupee conversion from China and India to rubles.
• Bofa says US stock rout is a correction, not the beginning of a bear market (Bloomberg): Strategist Michael Hartnett recommends buying the S&P 500, which can increase investors’ cash reserves to more than 4%, bond risk premiums expand, and stock sales accelerate.
• World Free Finance (WLFI), backed by Trump, completed $590 million in token sale (Coindesk); Despite early reports of slow sales, Trump-related crypto projects raised $590 million in token sales, limited to recognized investors, and Justin Sun’s investment helped boost demand.
• AI leads the cryptocurrency for VC USD in Q1’25, but is this game really important? (Coindesk): AI’s funding is close to $20 billion this quarter, with a salary increase of $15.3 billion from Databricks, and the largest crypto deal so far is second-hand funds receiving $2 billion in funding.
• New hope for European sick economy: the military (Wall Street Journal): The 800 billion euro defense initiative of the European Commission could drive technological advancement, stimulate job creation and enhance industrial capacity, especially in areas such as robotics, satellite networks and autonomous systems.
• UK economy unexpectedly signed 0.1% in January (Financial Times): The pound fell by 0.2% after weak GDP data. Prime Minister Rachel Reeves is expected to announce potential spending cuts in a spring statement on March 26.

In the ether