As the conflict between Israel and Iran escalates, Bitcoin (BTC) Prices remain stable.
Recalling previous conflicts showed similar trends, with factors such as adoption and institutional participation playing a key role.
Bitwise’s ETP platform and other research directors, and analysts such as André Dragosch I think the price of Bitcoin may be affected In the days after the conflict broke out. Although the volatility of BTC prices is generally a downward trend, it is still considered a risky asset and is likely to be sold soon when the war breaks out.
Nevertheless, as Mithil Thakore, co-founder and CEO of Bitcoin L2 liquidity protocol Velar, previously told Cointelegraph: “In the long run, geopolitical conflicts have increased the prospect of higher global inflation, because businesses that benefit from increased fiscal spending, such as looser monetary policies, damage to supply measures and commodity prices, should benefit from all benefits from Bitcoin.
Looking at the events of geopolitical instability in the past, Bitcoin has shown significant resilience, but lack of movement does not necessarily mean that Bitcoin is a hedge in times of uncertainty.
Here are some cases where Bitcoin prices react or fail to respond to large-scale armed conflicts in the world:
Israel – Iran War (June 13, 2025)
On June 13, Israel has attacked dozens of Iranian targets in Iran since the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. Over the next few days, both countries, the Middle East’s Arch rivals continued to carry out strategic missile attacks.
Despite concerns about wider escalation, including Israel’s call to participate in the U.S., the market has attracted much attention. Bitcoin is no exception.
Although the assets saw a brief drop immediately after the bomb explosion began, prices have largely recovered. Crypto Analyst ZA explain“Bitcoin does not seem to care about the conflict between Israel and Iran.”
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Perhaps the most famous Bitcoin bull Michael Saylor was not hurt either. On June 16, his company strategy acquired 10,001 BTC for $1 billion. Buy After Strategy’s third Bitcoin-backed preferred stockStrd, started trading on Nasdaq on June 11.
Israel – Iranian Embassy bombing (April 1, 2024)
On April 1, 2024, Israel attacked the Iranian Embassy complex in Damascus, Syria and killed several senior officials. In response, Iran occupied the Israeli ship MSC series and launched a series of attacks on Israel on April 13.
After two dates, Bitcoin’s price fell briefly, with BTC losing more than 8% after the April 13 retaliation.
Still, as the market gets used to the new norms, so does Bitcoin and continues to move upward.
Israeli Gaza War (October 7, 2023)
On October 7, 2023, Hamas troops from Gaza attacked targets within Israel, killing more than 1,000 Israelis, triggering a war and humanitarian crisis that is still going on.
The Israeli market immediately caused huge losses, while major weapons manufacturers such as Lockheed Martin saw stocks soar.
Bitcoin remained unaffected, and 50 days after the initial attack, it far outperformed its beginnings.
After the attack, there were reports that Hamas had Raised funds in cryptocurrency New call to tightly regulate space with the U.S. Treasury Sanctions on Gaza-based cryptocurrency operators Allegedly connected to the group.
Blockchain forensic company elliptical machine Say there is no evidence Support Hamas’ claim to raise funds in cryptocurrencies.
Russia’s full invasion of Ukraine (February 24, 2022)
In early 2022, after eight years of war in the Donbas region of Ukraine, Russia began a full-scale invasion in what Moscow calls a “special military operation.”
Global financial markets were immediately affected, with economies closest to Ukraine suffering the worst. Against this trend, Bitcoin’s price rose, with an increase of 16% after just five days of the invasion.
Exchange between Russia and Ukraine See the premium for cryptocurrency transactions As people fleeing abroad seek to use cryptocurrency to regulate currency.
One week after the war began, Ukraine Received over $70 million In cryptocurrency donations, it is mainly in the ether (eth).
Bitcoin Later that yearbut this is inspired by the collapse of the Terra Stablecoin ecosystem and other market events, not concerns about the Ukrainian war.
Bitcoin price and internal conflict
Although cryptocurrencies may become a risky asset in times of conflict in some parts of the world, its price movements seem to ignore internal conflicts outside the traditional markets of Europe, the Middle East and North America.
In November 2020, the war broke out in the Tigray region of Ethiopia after tensions between the left-wing nationalist Tigray People’s Liberation Front and the federal governments of Eritrea and Ethiopia.
This war caused hundreds of thousands of people, and the internally displaced war was feature Reported by the Catholic Near East Welfare Association. Report for 2024 Called It “forgets the war.”
The price of Bitcoin hasn’t attracted much attention either. At the time, the main narrative that dominated the crypto market was the unprecedented bull run of assets, which was largely due to inflation caused by the United 199 pandemic and institutional adoption of Block (and then Square) and strategy (at the time MicroStrategy).
Later that year, just a few months after the Tigray War broke out, on February 1, 2021, Myanmar’s Tatmadow overthrew the National League for Democracy in a coup, triggering a civil war that was underway.
In a month, the price of Bitcoin will reach $69,000 at the time.
Bitcoin and conflicts “close”
The key factor in discussing Bitcoin’s response to conflict is the extent to which Bitcoin is adopted—that is, it has exposure or relevance to traditional markets.
Some economists point to the impact of conflict geographical distance. Financial markets in countries closer to conflict areas will see more volatility and losses.
According to the chain analysis, overall adoption of India, Nigeria and Indonesia is in developing countries, according to Chainalysis’ 2024 Global Adoption Index. The index includes Onchain Crypto and retail value received by centralized services, as well as Onchain Crypto and retail value received by Defi Agreement.
Related: In the Israel-Iran conflict
By contrast, Bitcoin is finding increasingly centralized ownership between Western institutions and world governments. As of December 2024, only ETFs own 1% of Bitcoin, not Nakamoto Satoshi.
The biggest holders are now ETF issuers like Blackrock, crypto exchanges regulated like Kraken and Coinbase, and even the U.S. government.
Bitcoin hasn’t enjoyed this level of adoption until recently, and therefore, exposure to traditional financial markets and institutional investments.
In 2013, Bitcoin continued to consider its first big bull. It starts at $13 for the year, to $100 for April, and to $200 for October. At the end of this year, it closed above $1,000.
In addition to two armed conflicts, the second year began the “crypto winter”: the Donbass War, including Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the 2014 Gaza War.
During this time, cryptocurrencies are still in the niche industry, and miners can use graphics cards to mine bitcoin on their gaming computers. Kraken and Coinbase are only three and two years old, respectively.
Institutional participation is hardly present, and many believe that cryptocurrencies are only suitable for online adaptation to illegal activities.
Although both conflicts affected the stock market, both in regions and further afield, it was not discussed in crypto media, such as the impact of war on Bitcoin prices at that time.
Bitcoin’s response to war may be changing
Now, with increasing institutional adoption, for thousands of crypto-friendly U.S. government and international trade conferences, the price of Bitcoin could be affected by the negative forces armed conflict market.
Almost all of the above conflicts rebounded rapidly before widespread institutional adoption. This paradigm shift has seen the narrative of Bitcoin Transform from risky to risky assets. BTC is more correlated with traditional financial markets than before.
Nevertheless, analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin in the current climate. In a June 16 note, the QCP pointed out that the escalation could lead to a surge in oil prices, especially as “Iran blocks the Hormuz Strait” and potential U.S. participation undermines global risk assets.
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