Benjamin Netanyahu spent most of his political career doing everything to do everything to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons. In the early morning hours of Friday, the Israeli Prime Minister tried exactly that and sent more than 200 planes to strike goals throughout Iran in the most destructive attack by the Islamic Republic in four decades.
The attack – which Targeted Iranian nuclear locationsRaket and air defense systems and killed important military commanders and scientists for almost two years of spiral conflicts in the Middle East, in which Israel and Iran, his biggest opponent, are tireless towards war.
During this time, Israeli strikes shaped the regional allies of Iran: they defused Hisbollah to contribute to the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and in Gaza in Netanyahu, which destroy Hamas, a countless horror in Gaza that destroyed Hamas on October 7, 2023.
But analysts said the direct attack on Iran -to transform the decades of shadow war between the two most powerful actors in the Middle East into a comprehensive conflict, Netanyah’s so far fateful decision.
“In the past two decades, Iran has been number one for Netanyahu,” said Aviv Bushinsky, who served as chief of staff in the 1990s. “This is the most important thing he did.”
Israeli military officers said that the decision for the strike had been made because Iran’s nuclear program had driven into a phase in which it was shortly before the development of a bomb, despite years of hidden Israeli attempts to derail it.
Another part of their calculations was the belief that IsraelThe weakening of the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah – the most powerful representative of Iran – and the damage that Iranian air defendants and rocket production facilities was inflicted by Israeli strikes in the past year had a window for a strike that would close if Iran and the Hizbollah were longer to be rebuilt.
“We cannot afford to wait for another time that we have no other choice,” said Eyal Zamir, the chief of staff of the military of Israel. “The latest and earlier events in history have taught us that if the enemy tries to destroy ourselves, we are not allowed to make an eye.”
But Ellie Geranmayh from the European Council for Foreign Relations said the efforts to force Tehran to give up his nuclear program through diplomatic pressure – something that Netanyahu always contradicted – was also a factor. “It is clear that your timing and her large -scale nature should completely derail the conversations,” she said.
Analysts said that Netanyahu’s decision was also a sign of how he had been encouraged in the past two years throughout the Middle East and by the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House by Israel’s military successes against Iranian deputies.
While the government of Joe Biden put pressure on the right -wing extremist government of Netanyahus on various questions, from the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza to a creeping annexation of the occupied West Bank, the administration of Trump was far more accommodating.
One person trusted with the situation said that the decision to prepare the final preparation for the strikes was made on Monday and that the Trump administration was in the loop and had no objection to Netanyah’s plans. “The United States was all the time,” said the person.
Analysts, however, said that despite the tacit support from the United States, the operation – which an Israeli official said could take up to two weeks – was affected by both military and political dangers for Netanyahu.
In the short term, the greatest risk is that the retaliation measures of Iran have a much greater conflict. The Islamic Republic still has a large arsenal of ballistic rockets and threatens to use it not only against Israel, but also against US goals in the region, which increases the risk that Washington could be fought in the fight.
Although Hisbollah had been badly damaged by Israel’s strikes last year, a wounded Iran could also make the militant group use their remaining skills now, according to the analysts. Iran oriented militants in Yemen and Iraq were also able to strengthen their rocket start against Israel.
Israel was largely successful from the United States, Great Britain and other countries in the region to ward off the two rocket fire that Iran was fired in Israel last year when the two enemies exchanged direct fire for the first time.
In view of the order of magnitude and importance of the attack of Israel, the officials are, however, to a much greater reaction and the risk of Iranian strikes, which seriously damage both the infrastructure and civilian victims.
Immediately after Israel’s strike, Israelis gathered for the flag, with opposition politicians such as Yair Lapid and Yair Golan supporting the operation just a few days after he tried to put down the coalition of Netanyahu. Analysts said, however, that if the exchange escalated into a lengthy conflict with severe victims, public opinion could shift.
“The war in Gaza started with great support. Time can make people change their opinion, especially if they have to spend too long in animal shelters,” said Nadav Shtrauchler, a political consultant who previously worked with Netanyahu.
“We understand that we are in a different situation than before. But I don’t think people think that this is currently the wrong step.”
In the long term, the question arises whether Netanyahu’s decision to carry out the strike against Iran without US participation means that Israel is only successful for a short time instead of destroying it.
But Bushinsky said, even if Israel was unable to completely eradicate the skills of Iran, Netanyahu, who desperately wanted to save his call for the catastrophic mistakes on October 7, and even branded the following war.
“I do not know whether this will be strategically a player. Perhaps the Iranians will say that their program has hardly been hit and they can get it up again. And maybe they will be right.
“It will not extinguish his responsibility for the (failures) on October 7th. However, some of the spots will remove.”
