For decades, the question was whether and how the Palestinians could build in their homeland, the center of the Middle East politics – not only for the Palestinians, but for Arabs throughout the region, many of which consider Palestinian almost their own.
Arabs who claim that the Palestinian statehood and destabilization of the whole region in this process would force the Palestinians from their remaining territory.
So it was a nightmare for the closest Arab neighbors Palestinians, Egypt and Jordan-A Dream for Israeli’s far-right government-when President Trump has proposed to move all of the Gaza bands and on their land, on their land, on their land, an idea that has repeated At the White House press conference with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday.
Egypt and Jordan responded with a categorical “nose” – although their reasons are not all of the pure concerns of the Palestinian situation: Cairo is Dre and what the Palestinian refugees in Sinai would mean for Egypt’s security. Militants could initiate attacks on Israel from Egyptian land, invite Israeli retaliation, or be admitted to the local uprising in Sinai that Egypt had fought for years. Jordan’s king must count on a population that is more than half Palestinian, so accepting more such refugees could further increase tension.
This rejection was supported by political independent and opposition characters in Egypt, along with the mouthpieces for the country’s authoritarian government, emphasizing how the Palestinian question can unify even the worst political opponents.
Khaled El-Balsy, an editor of one of the few remaining Egyptian media that is not for the government, and the head of the National Journalists Union on Wednesday issued a statement indicating the proposal of Mr. Trump as “clear violation of human rights and international laws. ”
Moustafa Bakry, a loud provision of parliament, proposed without giving the specifics that Egypt could dispose of force. “Egypt can move forward with other measures, because the Egyptian army can never afford it,” he said on Wednesday in an interview.
Mr Trump, however, showed only a little consideration for the concerns of both countries, their sovereignty or the idea of Palestinian statehood.
“They say they won’t accept,” Trump said about Egypt and Jordan during an earlier meeting with Mr. Netanyah in an oval office. “I say yes.”
If they are pushing forward with its proposal, the President may have ways to bend them at will. Egypt and Jordan are among the best recipients of American military assistance; Mr. Trump has mentioned funds in recent weeks without publicly threatening to pull them through the problem of gaza. With Egypt economy in crisisThe government depends on loans, namely the IP of the International Monetary Fund in which the United States is the largest shareholder.
One of the reasons why the United States has given Egypt and Jordan over the years billions of dollars is their special position of the first Arab countries that agree with peace treaties with Israel. The United States has mediated these agreements after years of conflict and considered them to be the key to Israel’s security. The arrangement has long been considered the basic stability in the Middle East.
Egypt worked together Closely with Israel about security On its restraint of the Sinai Peninsula, which borders with Gaza and Israel. But while Egypt and Jordan relate to speaking and sometimes more, with Israel, their population never stopped seeing Israel as an enemy, especially after his last attack on Gaza.
Analysts say that incentives maintaining American aid, which forms a limited part of the budget of each country, is smaller compared to their concerns theft of their populations. Although the rulers of both countries often deny little disagreement, they often use repression to silence internal criticism, analysts claim that they cannot afford to ignore public opinion.
“It’s not a joke against Trump, especially for Egypt and Jordan,” said Paul Salem, vice president of international involvement in the Middle East in Washington. But because “it would really be a bridge too far for most public opinion,” he added, “There is no other option for the Arab leader. I don’t understand what else they could do. ”
For Egypt President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi, this problem is particularly sensitive because he tried to collect public support by painting as a Palestinian champion. Popular dissatisfaction over uncontrollable inflation and bad government management grew before the war in Gaza in October 2023, which allowed Mr. El-sisi to regain some popularity With strong testimonies of Israel and promises to become Palestinians.
But the shine appeared when the war continued, and the Egyptian social media swirled with the news of the grades that Egyptian leaders worked with Israel. The government arrested dozens of Egyptians who protested against Israeli actions.
Mr. El-sisi and his allies tried to face dissatisfaction, with Egyptian pro-government media often trump the role of Egypt in the provision of humanitarian assistance to Gaz and pro-government politicians congratulations to Mr. El-Sisim to personally mediate fire fire. (Egypt served as one of the mediators of the agreement along with Qatar and the United States.)
Permitting Palestinian displacement into Egypt would “destroy the narrative” I defend the country “,” said Mauged Mandour, an Egyptian political analyst.
Egypt also sees the possibility that Palestinians in Egypt settle as a serious security threat, say government officials, diplomats and analysts. Officials are afraid that members of militant groups among violently displaced Palestinians could start attacks on Israel from Egyptian land and invite Israeli military retaliation.
Egypt is also careful that Hamas, an Islamist group that controls Gaza, could cause militance and spread her influence in Egypt. Cairo has spent years trying to suppress political Islamism and uprising at home.
Jordan, with his much smaller population – including many people of Palestinian origin – may be even more vulnerable. The Jordanian monarchy also had a tense history with militant Palestinian factions.
For a long time, the right -wing Israelis have long talked about Jordan as a place where the Palestinians pushed out of Gaza and in the West Bank, should create their homes and in Jordan to give concern that if people are pushed out of Gaza, Israel would continue to turn to the West Bank .
Many, if not everyone, would probably be forced to go next to Jordan, which is already disturbed by the tension between citizens who are of Palestinian origin, and those who are not, say analysts.
Yet analysts said that the government of the hard line of Israel seemed so self -confident that US support for its actions could be willing to destabilize relations with their neighbors.
But to rely on us to pursue our ambitions on the strenuous objections of our neighbors will not be sustainable in the long run, said Ha Hellyer, Manager of the Institute Royal United Services in London and the American Progress Center in Washington. He claimed that “the only way the Israelis have long -term and sustainable security in the region is that they have to actually integrate into the region.”
Some experts, including those close to the Egyptian government, survived the hope that Mr. Trump only took the extreme initial position that would soften in negotiations.
As an entrepreneur, “It happens if it doesn’t work,” said Samir Fararag, a former Egyptian military officer who often comments on Egyptian security matters on Wednesday on Wednesday on Wednesday on Wednesday.
But Mr. Hellyer said that rhetoric from some people near Mr. Trump who supports the displacement and emphasizes that even The western bank should be considered a Jewish country The Arabs caused any Trump plan with extreme suspicion.
A much more limited version of the plan can be “theoretically acceptable” for Egypt and Jordan, he said, “But it destroys any possibility, because framing the whole thing is now:” We want to clean it “”
