Phil McAlister, who directed NASA’s business space division from 2005 to 2024, which included this business space station program, said the changes give NASA and the companies an opportunity for success, considering that the agency’s budget will be less than expected.
“How’s NASA’s previous strategy for trading stations when they lost close to a third of their budget?” McAlister told Ars. “They didn’t have a chance. This gives them a chance.”
It is unclear how widely this document was circulated before Duffy signed it on Monday. It seems to be hastily written. Northrop Grumman, for example, are spelled two different ways. One source told Ars that senior leaders in NASA’s space operation division were not aware of the changes before the directive was distributed.
Winners and losers
About five years ago, NASA awarded initial space development contracts to four different companies: Northrop Grumman, Blue Origin, Axiom Space, and Voyager Space. Since then, Northrop dropped his effort and joined Voyager’s team. There was also some interest from other companies, most notably extensive, who work with SpaceX develop its initial space station.
Probably the most striking thing about the new directive is that it seems to favor vast over NASA’s original entrepreneurs. Specifically, Vast’s Haven-1 Module is designed for four astronauts to spend two weeks in orbit, and the company has a more direct way to build a station that would meet NASA’s minimum requirements.
The other companies planned larger stations that would have more stay in orbit, which matched NASA’s original wishes for a successor to the International Space Station. The new directive favors a company building capabilities through interim steps, including stations with a limited lifetime on orbit.
“All current players will have to make some kind of pivot, at least review their current setting,” McAlister said. “Some players will have to make a more difficult pivot.”
One industrial official, speaking anonymously, put it more safely: “Only Haven-1 can succeed in this environment. This is our reading.”
The CEO of VAST, Max Haot, told Ars that the company is betting that starting with a minimum feasible product was the best business strategy and fully funded that approach without government money.
“It seems that NASA is now bending to access for the future of CLDs, which is guided by what industry believes it can achieve technically and build a credible business model around,” Haot told Ars. “View this information from entrepreneurs before compromising buying services can help increase long-term risk reduction. This seems similar to the successful approaches used by NASA for cargo and crew.”
VAST worked closely with SpaceX in the development of its station, to the extent that Haven-1 will mostly trust the Dragon spacecraft for life support and some other functions. Future stations, such as Haven-2, will have more independent capabilities.
This story originally appeared in Ars Technica.
