On 5 October 2024, Iran was struck by an earthquake. Only minutes later, rumors began to spread on social media that it was not a natural event, but a secret Iranian nuclear weapon.
Now, researchers led by Johns Hopkins University have turned off these claims in Study Published on February 3 in the magazine Seismic. Their work reaffirms that the earthquake was a normal seismic event while emphasizing the risk of weapon scientific misinformation during periods of geopolitical tension.
“There was a concert misinformation and a disinform campaign around this event, which promoted the idea that this was a nuclear test, which is not something you often see happen with an earthquake,” Benjamin Fernando of Johns Hopkins University, who led the study, said in university Statement. “This shows how geophysical data played a major role in a geopolitical crisis.”
Less than a year after Hamas’ attack on Israel, size 4.5 earthquake (the extensive nuclear-test-banned treaty organization Reported A size of 4.2) beat about 31 miles (50 kilometers) southwest of the Iranian city of Semnan, and 135 miles (216 km) east of the capital, Tehran.
Months later, Fernando and his colleagues analyzed the event using publicly available data from seismic monitoring stations. Seismologists study earthquakes by recording their seismic waves from various points around the planet. They concluded that “the source [of the earthquake] It was what we call inverse fault – a motion associated with the ground shell to be crushed during the Arab and Eurasian plates collide, “Fernando explained. They categorically discarded any association between the event and a secret nuclear test.” , who are explosive, “Fernando added.
Additionally, the complete Test -Ban -Treaty Organization (CTBTO), which tracks nuclear trials around the globe, has confirmed that Similar earthquakes Occurred in the region in 2015 and 2018. Due to its location between the convergent Arab and Eurasian tectonic plates, Iran is known as a seismic active region.
However, rumors that the seismic activity was not naturally spread on social media. According to the study, the first such poster appeared in X less than 20 minutes after the trembling – comment claiming that the shaking was caused by an Israeli strike on Iran. The first suggestion that a nuclear test caused the earthquake appeared 27 minutes after the shaking. From there the misinformation has spiralized, emphasizing incorrect interpretations of seismic data and attract conspiracy theories, as well as what the authors identified as active disinformation.
Iran has become nuclear since last night.
They used the test bombs 10 km below the surface near Semnan to ensure minimal radiation exhibition and it resulted in a 4.6 -scale earthquake, which was recorded by seismographs.#iran #khamenai #nuclear #Israel pic.twitter.com/bsdfywdq5– Akhilesh Mar (@ Akamar92) 6 October 2024
Iran’s nuclear program has been in the center of tensions in the Middle East for decades, and Iran maintains that it has peaceful intentions while the United States and its allies are working to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons. Allegations of secret nuclear weapons could possibly push the region – and the world – to the edge of war.
The challenge of identifying active misinformation lies in distinguishing strategic misinformation from simple ignorance. However, “a pattern of substantial and ongoing engagement with other users, and knowledge of seismology”, seen on some social media interactions “may imply a human author with some specialist knowledge of this material,” the researchers explained in the study, suggesting intentional effort to defame.
As the scientists noted in the new study, newspapers around the world quickly picked up the fury, including outlets in the United States, France, Britain, Israel, India, Pakistan and Zimbabwe. Main English -language media “almost exclusively speculated (or otherwise entertained the idea) that this event may have been a nuclear test,” the researchers wrote.
As a result, “These articles could be seen as indirectly supporting the spread of misinformation by giving faith and visibility to misinformed interpretations of complex seismic data and failing to seek independent, experienced control.” On the other hand-and perhaps unknowingly-the researchers found that Persian languages generally reported the event more precisely, often relying on local experts.
The researchers ultimately gave suggestions on how the scientific community can possibly prevent such widespread misinformation in the future.
“Scientific agencies could issue detailed reports quickly to counter misinformation,” suggested the same Karimi from Johns Hopkins University, co -author of the study. “Giving amplification to contents coming from controlled scientific accounts could help reduce the misleading story. This is possible through a partnership between social media platforms and reliable seismologists or agencies such as the US Geological Survey. ”
Ultimately, the study emphasizes how scientific misinformation could have terrible global consequences.