The S&P 500 has repeated the all -time high On February 19, it exceeded a massive round trip on Friday, in which US shares crashed against President Donald Trump’s trade war, and then a few months later their way back.
But while investors can feel completely after they have seen how their portfolios were wiped out, there is also regret about what they missed – or what could have been.
Where would the S&P 500 be today, for example, if Trump hadn’t shocked the Wall Street with a lot of steep than expected tariffs?
At the end of 2024, many forecastists from Wall Street expected the broad market index to 7,000 to 7,000 or was directly below this threshold and built up more than 20%for two years.
At that time, the concept of the continued “American state of emergency” in the global economy and the financial markets remained the dominant narrative, since investors focused more on Trump’s tax cuts and deregulation than its tariffs. In contrast to views for more stagnation in Europe and another slowdown in China, this was in contrast to views.
Fast lead to this day, and the script has been turned over. Investors plowed capital into overseas markets, especially after the “day of liberation” in early April. The US dollar index has dropped by 10% this year because investors are no longer considered to be exceptional and doubt the Greenback Safe-Haven status.
In the meantime, Europe and China are looking for opportunities to increase growth and to compensate for the expected resistance of weaker exports to the USA
Europe observes ways to deregulation and plans a large dose of fiscal stimulus in the form of more defense spending. This is as the NATO allies in the middle of Trump’s demands for more stress, fears of Russian aggression and doubts about the US security sign.
China, the primary goal of Trump’s trade war, also triggered more fiscal stimulus and sworn more fiscal stimulus when Beijing tries to shift its economy towards domestic demand and not from export -oriented growth. At the same time, China’s profits in the AI, as Deepseek’s breathtaking progress, have shown that deepseeks have shown to be bulled.
These guideline transformers have fueled shares that largely beat the US markets.
The Dax share market index in Germany has risen by 20% so far, and the MSCI Europe Stock Index has increased by 21%. Other European indices have made more modest profits, but the United States still exceeds, with the FTSE increased by 8%by 8%.
In China, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose by 21% this year and the Ishares Msci China ETF. (But the Shanghai index only achieved a profit of 2% in 2025.)
The S&P 500 is now 5% ahead of this year. After Trump has put his most aggressive collective bargaining prices on ice and has reached trade agreements with Great Britain and China. In the meantime, the company income, the inflation readings did not stop, and some political decision -makers from the Federal Reserve crowded for previous interest reductions.
However, the US stock market recovery is also based on hope as well as the actual results. Investors hope that the trade war will not escalate again, the inflation remains at bay, the income goes through and the economy does not tip into a recession – not to mention tensions in the Middle East, which has a broader conflict.
Of course, it is still possible for S&P 500 to achieve these optimistic forecasts that Wall Street saw before Trump’s trade war. However, the main question for investors is whether US shares can return to other markets for long-term outperformance.
