The global markets will enter the economic road when President Donald Trump’s dusting tariff attitude leads to a comprehensive trade war, warns the billionaire investor Steve Eisman.
The former managing director of Neuberger Berman – who successfully expected and benefited from the 2008 Börsencash and benefited and whose profile served as the basis for Michael Lewis’ book (and later the film from 2015) “The Big Short” – in A CNBC interview On Tuesday, the US economy and markets will thrive if the Trump administration can make Truces easier with the various nations in which it has collected tariffs. But if that doesn’t happen, “are the chances, we will go into a global recession.”
“I think the tariffs and the potential for a trade war are really the only risk of the market at the moment,” said Eisman. “It is completely binary and I really have no way to hinder it.”
Trumps Whipsaw Targetic decisions worked both consumers – they have cut back Expenditures as the result of the taxes – and investors who, like Eisman, consider the tariffs as a threat to the global economy. A Bank of America The Global Fund Manager survey published this week showed that 47% of the 222 fund managers surveyed gave that a global recession due to a trade war was the greatest “tail risk” for the markets.
Trade agreement, as with Great Britain and A Preliminary ceasefire with Chinahave alleviated these concerns. JPMorgan Research lowered his probability From US and global recessions from 60% to 40% at the end of May, citing reduced trade voltages as a result of Trump, which lowered Chinese tariffs. However, the United States still have its trading problems with the European Union before a crucial July 9.
Eisman led similarities between the rocky trade environment and the lead to the First World War, which probably refers to A Series of contracts In the decades before the war, forged to regulate regional skirmishes, which actually created two massive and finally opposing alliances.
“Nobody wanted the First World War, and yet they somehow ended there due to all the mutual contracts between the countries,” he said. “I don’t think someone wants a trade war, but it is definitely possible.”
Not just China
Although trade talks with China are the focus, Eisman argued that the process of consolidating trade relationships with Europe was “more interesting” in view of the EU concerns and VAT (VAT). With 27 Member States, the EU must reconcile countless agendas and make a potential trade agreement difficult.
“The negotiation with Europe is like trying to guard cats because they are structured,” said Eisman.
Trump claimed that the EU is Created to “screw” The United States threatened to force the union to impose a 50% tariff. As Part of the negotiationsThe administration has tried to put the EU under pressure to loosen the technical regulations you claim that affects the growth of US companies. Trump also rejects the offset manner, essentially a sales tax that accumulates in every level in the supply chain of a product. The President has Interpreted VAT The reason for the tax is the reason for the US company inappropriate financial pressure that is trying to export to Europe.
Trump has signaled that the United States is not yet satisfied with the provisions of the agreement and reported reporters on Tuesday: “We are talking, but I don’t have the feeling that they still offer a fair deal.”
Trump’s former Minister of Commerce Wilbur Ross warned that after successful negotiations with China and Great Britain, the Trump government could become too high in negotiations with the EU that push the European allies away.
“A fear is that our government, if it is too cute with its progress, can exceed the hand and get to levels that are difficult – perhaps even impossible – so that the other countries can give in” told Assets Last week.
“It will be difficult, but the goal of our country should be to make the European nations stronger and keep them nearby,” he added.
