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Your guide to what the US election 2024 means for Washington and the world
The markets were fools on Saturday and clever character judges on Monday. When Donald Trump announced tariffs against America’s neighbors last weekend, investors who had spoken about a misunderstood, deceptively pragmatic US president since November were naively uncovered. 48 hours. Then he confirmed it more or less. In return for Canadian and Mexican assurance, the tariffs were postponed for cross-border drug transport and other Trump bugbears. Investment banks can postpone the raiden customer views by March.
The world would of course be silly to relax. Trump has the potential to destroy the trading system in the coming years, even if he does this in seizures and starts. But if nothing else, the last few days have been training in the art of dealing with him.
Because Trump has to argue so quickly, people tend to miss the fact that he quickly settles down. He almost never drives such a hard bargain as his warlike nature seems to promise. In 2020, China bought some peace with a vague and difficult -to -invented promise to reduce the retail weight of the two countries. (“The biggest business everyone has ever seen”, he called itWith the appearance of the external perception.) Likewise, he did not give up NAFTA as much as a revised version of it as a personal coup. When egoist, not being a fanatic that interests him, his reputation as a manufacturer of deals is. To keep it up, he needs a regular flow of them. And so their content becomes secondary. We can mock, but the lesson here for countries that are confronted with Trump is encouraging: give it something he can Call Victory. The concession does not have to be huge and it will actually work together to talk about its meaning.
It doesn’t seem to do so much to him in which coin he is paid for. Trump is open to what Henry Kissinger refers to as a “link”. If he is upset about one thing, he cannot be related to a gesture to something apparently. Would you like to avoid a trade war, Europe? Spend more for defense. Would you like to prevent Ukraine’s betrayal? The regulation of the tech sector alleviates. It is difficult to know what first place about Trump’s ceasefire with his colleagues north and southern statement.
So yes, Trump threatens to displace industrial investments from Europe to the United States. But Europe is spoiled to offer it things, precisely because its grievances are so numerous. In this sense, it could be easier to define than Joe Biden, who did not believe that NATO was a club of free streaks or the EU conspiracy against Silicon Valley. There was nothing that Europe could offer about these fronts that would dissolve it to the first industrial plan in America. It could be with Trump. The very paranoia of its worldview – in which the United States is almost always torn down from any time, means that there are many entry points for a negotiation.
If Trump is this paradoxical thing, an aggressive soft touch, then she shows herself in his personal relationships, not only in his international art. Think of all the once high Republicans who have found a way back to his graces. A stay in the Trump Hundehütte is uncomfortable, but often briefly, because everything you have to do to get out no longer fight against him. His own Vice President is a former critic. So is his foreign minister. This should not be confused with Grandmut or great doctor’s soul by Trump’s part. Instead, I suspect that he would rather have the pleasure of burning himself over the years rather than the unique high in destroying it. It is something of Caesar in his conviction that the ultimate detention of an enemy is to save it.
In fact, Trump could even prefer former critics who bend his knee towards faithful, long -time fans. (Because where is the feeling of conquering with you?) If so, David Lammy and Peter Mandelson, who are far from being away, are unpleasant decisions than British Foreign Minister and Ambassador in Washington, perverse meaning. Her former booms at the President are the point, no liability. If it is a guarantee for anything right from the start, Nigel Farage’s place before the Maga dish would not be so unsure.
Again and again, whether in the personal area or in geopolitics, a small step towards Trump is usually well taken. The unusual ugliness of his statements makes it difficult to see. If a US President wants to “take over” the Gaza and develop it in a Levantiner Cote D’Azur, it seems senseless to throw a bone on the market. But the data record is the data record. Of course, the problem with this argument is that it undermines itself. If the president’s habit of explaining the victory in dispute almost as easily becomes a trope, people know that it will not have his ego. He will increase his demands.
Until then, countries that construct with him have to use what they have. Trump’s restless longing for “deals” as proof of his personal clout is something that can be exploited. In the end, the markets, regardless of the news on Monday morning, are still naive about him. For those who recognized that trade and internationalism have raised the amount of humanity, there is no good news about the next four years, only the least batische ways to operate in storm.
