Key points:
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Ether’s futures and options data signal signal is a neutral to grey sentiment despite the recent recovery of prices.
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Institutional ETF outflow and lack of catalyst prevent ETH from breaking $3,800.
Ether (Ethereth) Prices rose 9% from Sunday’s $3,355 low, but derivatives indicators suggest that traders still don’t believe the bullish momentum will remain.
Recent price action is closely similar to the broader Altcoin market cap, highlighting the apparent driver absence of the ongoing continuous rally in the short term.
Altcoin’s market value reached $1.3 trillion on July 28, matching Ether’s highest level in 2025. As a result, Ether cannot recover $4,000 of $4,000 in late July, which is a possibility for investors to reduce the risk in investors rather than any specific issue in Ethereum Ecosystem.
Still, this does not mean investors are optimistic about Ether’s price outlook.
Ether 3 months Futures Premium Now at 5% of the neutral to grey threshold. What is particularly worrying is that even the $3,900 ETH price level reached a week ago failed to turn the indicator bullish.
Ethereum’s TVL decline hurts investor sentiment
A portion of investors’ disappointment can be associated with a decline in deposits between diversified applications (DAPP). this Total value locked (TVL) On the Ethereum network, it has dropped 9% in the past 30 days, with ETH of 23.8 million.
For comparison, BNB chain’s TVL rose 8% in the same period to BNB 6.94 billion, while Solana Dapps’ deposits rose 4% to 69.2 million. In terms of the US dollar, Ethereum’s grassroots layer continues to dominate with a 59% share of total TVL.
The optimistic decline in ether investors is also reflected in the ETH option market, as the 25% Delta Skew (Put -Call) indicator hits 6% on Saturday, just at the neutral to less threshold.
When there is a need for protection (sell) options, the deviation increases. The current 3% reading indicates a balanced risk assessment, indicating that bullish sentiment has not returned yet.
ETH lacks institutional demand and requires $3,800
ETH prices on Coinbase and Kraken are currently traded at a slightly discounted price compared to Binance and Bitfinex, which may indicate weaker demand for institutional tables. This is in stark contrast to the period between July 10 and July 23, when the price premium may reflect the company’s capital raising Accumulate ETH reserves.
Related: Crypto funds see $223 million outflows, ending a 15-week streak as Fed’s wet sentiment
Institutional demand for ETH appears to have been reduced, especially as an ether attractions Exchange funds (ETF) recorded a net outflow of $129 million between Wednesday and Friday. At present, there is no obvious catalyst to decouple Ether from the wider cryptocurrency market and drive its price at $3,800.
There is no imminent driving force for cryptocurrency rally, especially as risks to global trade war persist and concerns grow in the outlook for the U.S. job market. Traders are increasingly reluctant to bring doubtful benefits to the government, as economic growth and inflation data may be driven by storing goods by businesses and individuals before escalating import tariffs.
Without new institutional inflows, ETH may continue to be closely linked to the overall altcoin market.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be considered legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent Cointelegraph’s views and opinions.
