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“Daddy’s home,” announced the White House and came Donald Trump’s return from the NATO summit of the past week. This social media contribution was triumphant and mocking the title that Trump was awarded by Mark Rutte, the Secretary General of NATO. Rutte could argue that it is a small price to humiliate yourself to keep the alliance together. And the European leaders seemed to be largely satisfied after the first NATO summit from Trump’s second term.
The fears of the US President, who went out of the summit – or even the alliance itself – did not come to pass. All European NATO members have now undertaken generally defined to issue 5 percent of GDP for defense.
A European leader lists three important achievements from the summit. First, NATO has realigned its key mission – the deterrent in Russia. Second, the Alliance returns to the Cold War of Defense Spending in response to the continuing military building of Russia. Third, NATO, with increasing defense spending, becomes a more balanced alliance between the USA and Europe.
The fact that the NATO summit took place on Iran immediately after the military strike of the US military also changed the atmosphere. Trump arrived in a good mood – and his willingness to bomb the Iranian nuclear location in the European fears that he will always shy away from the use of violence. Trump also had a friendly one meet With Volodymyr Zelenskyy from Ukraine, part of the damage was repaired after the catastrophic meeting of the White House of the two guides in February.
But while things are going diplomatically better for Ukraine, the war itself seems to be worse. Some NATO leaders fear that the situation on the front in autumn could deteriorate seriously. That would be far more important than all paper obligations in the NATO communiqué of the past week. Military reviews suggest that both the Russian and the Ukrainian military approach the point of exhaustion. But while Russia can probably maintain the current operating level for another year, Ukraine can reach a break within six months – if it does not receive significant new military support.
After the positive meeting with Zelenskyy-Trump, there is hope that Ukraine may receive fresh stocks from the USA from Patriot Missile Defense Systems and Himars Artillery Rockets. If the air defense of Ukraine is stretched thinly, the patriots are urgently needed. But as always, Trump was vague to provide new ammunition – and was able to easily change or forget his opinion.
There are also some deficits – especially in the Ukrainian number of troops – that the western allies of the country cannot remedy. Russia is now assumed that he has lost or wounded or wounded more than a million soldiers in the conflict. But the Ukrainian losses were also heavy and the population of Russia is about four times larger than that of Ukraine.
The increased intensity of Russian Rocket attacks In Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, the Ukrainian cities also harm Moral. Without a clear vision of victory – or at least the war – a feeling of hopelessness that falls through the country.
The change in mood in the Ukrainian government is reflected in the urgency with which it now calls for an armistice privately. Such calls would have been regarded as defeats a year or two ago. Now they are made with increasing existence in meetings with closed doors between Ukrainian and western leaders.
However, there is little faith among European political decision -makers that Russia is agreed in any mood in any mood. A well-placed civil servant believes that the central goal of Russia now sees the recording of Odesa Istwas Vladimir Putin as a historical Russian city. Without Odesa, Ukraine would lose access to its main harbor.
A group of former European leaders – including Carlbildt from Sweden and Sanna Marin from Finland – recently visited Ukraine and took up the worsening mood. They wrote afterwards “While the Ukrainians will never stop resisting themselves without more military support, Ukraine can lose more areas. More cities can be captured.” From the recording, some western officials are even dark and warn of the risk of a “catastrophic failure” if the Ukrainian military is stretched to a break – and no significant increase in military and financial aid from its western allies.
Of course, wars are unpredictable and the moods can shift. Some in the West argue that Ukraine can keep itself in the coming year. They claim that, despite enormous efforts and losses last year, Russia only recorded 0.25 percent of the Ukrainian territory. The optimists argue that the expertise of the Ukrainians in the drone warfare have made large groups of Russian troops impossible to make massive progress. They also argue that Russia – even if the Ukrainian lines breaks through – lack the mechanized divisions to use the performance.
The wisdom preserved was often proven to be wrong in this war. But if the growing pessimism among those who follow the Ukraine gliding exactly, then all feelings of wellbeing created by the NATO summit could disappear. NATO Secretary General is known for its optimistic nature and its permanent smile. But even Rutte could have difficulty smiling until the end of the year.
