The energy markets focus on the US bombers important nuclear positions in IranWhich is a first -class oil -producing country and is able to threaten a critical transit point for global exports.
The attack draws the USA directly against Iran in offensive surgery and escalates a conflict that started a week and a half ago when Israel started its own campaign with expansive air strikes.
Although the global markets are expected to see an initial jerk, there are other mitigating factors that could alleviate the blow.
“Expect that oil with a sharp 7-10% gap is opened when the risk premiums rise. Kpler posted on x.
Based on the closing course of Brent Rohöl on Friday, a jump of 10% would bring the global oil benchmark to almost $ 85 per barrel.
The ability of the Iranian retaliatory measures are limited, said Kpler and said that the road from Hormuz or attack on the energy infrastructure, which belongs to the Golf Cooperation Council – is very unlikely to participate Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the VAE.
Nevertheless, the geopolitical shock from America’s unprecedented attacks on Iran should lead to more rough supply to the market and alleviate all price peaks.
Kpler said that an early OPEC +ONOT increase for August of 411,000 barrels per day or more is increasingly likely. This would increase a number of similar production increases in recent months.
Hormuz’s road is first class for the markets because it is a critical choke point in the global energy trade. The equivalent of 21% of the global consumption of oil fluids or about 21 million barrels per day flows through the narrow waterway.
The Iranian Parliament approved the road on Sunday, although security officials have not yet been deregistered.
Such a closure can mean the use of mines, patrol boats, aircraft, cruise rockets and diesel -u boats, while the road can take weeks or months.
In a note last week, George Saravelos, head of FX research at German bankestimates that the worst case scenario of a complete disorder of Iranian oil supply and a closure of the Hormuz road could send oil prices over $ 120 per barrel.
However, the closure of the street would also suffocate the Iranian oil exports, of which more than 90% go to China and destroy the Iranian economy.
As a result, the closure of the street belongs to A Spectrum of the retaliation of Iran That would put the survival of his regime in danger, which means that Tehran’s reaction could come elsewhere.
“Fearing disorders will be the story you can see,” said Kpler. “The golf in the Middle East and red sea The face threat by Houthi attacks and medium distillates, especially Jet, ready to benefit even more in the west of Suez. “
