Members of the Indian Youth Congress protested the silence of the Modi government on the 26% tariff imposed on New Delhi, India on April 5, 2025.
Amarjeet Kumar Singh | Anadolu | Getty Images
In February, U.S. President Donald Trump exchanged warm greetings with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi Bear hugAnd promise to pursue Early trade agreements.
Now, six months later, that kindness has changed. Trump tagged India as “Tariff King”, Threat to impose higher taxes within 24 hoursAnd blame it Refuel the Russian war in Ukraine by buying oil.
This shift raises the question: Will India put pressure on us or push back and risk fatigue Ten years of partnership?
Former Singaporean diplomat Bilahari Kausikan told CNBC that India will always prioritize its national interests. “India is (a) a country with a deep sense of self,” he said, adding that it will “never play any sheriff.”
On Wednesday, Trump vowed to raise tariffs on India’s exports “substantially” and follow a threat of fines and fines for Russian oil and weapons purchases.
when Modi and Trump By 2030, it aims to double the dual trade of bilateral trade.
Vice President JD Vance The terms of the trade agreement have been reached, Minister of Commerce Piyush Goyal Expected “discount” tariffs Just a few days before the hike.
But Kausikan, also formerly former permanent secretary of Singapore’s diplomatic department, said: “Just because New Delhi was shocked by Trump’s tariffs is ridiculous, his insulting character of the Indian economy is “death”, his flirting with Pakistan, India’s flirting will swing towards China or Russia at our expense.”
He refers to Trump’s Post on social mediacalling India and Russia’s economies “death”.
India leaned towards the Soviet Union during the Cold War, but after the Soviet Union collapsed, India deepened its ties with the United States, especially under Presidents George W. Bush and President Barack Obama.
“What brings India and the United States together is a common concern for China,” Kausiken pointed out. “This concern has not disappeared.”
Today, the two countries have raised their partnership to “Global and Global Strategic Partnership” Cooperation with Defense, technology and clean energy. India was designated as the “main defense partner” by the United States in 2016.
Untangle the relationship?
However, Evan Feigenbaum, vice president of the Carnegie International Peace Endowment Foundation Warning in Monday’s comment Trump’s actions can unveil more than two decades of progress.
Talking about CNBC’s “Asquawk Box Asia“He said despite their bilateral relations, such as India’s links with Russia and the United States to Pakistan – they have never brought those third parties’ relationships or fears of returning to bilateral relations in a very debilitating way.”
“All bets are closed,” he added.
from India Ministry of Foreign Affairs On Tuesday, criticism of Russian oil purchases quickly responded, calling it “unreasonable and unreasonable.” The ministry also pointed out that Western countries criticized India itself for continuing trade with Russia.
Feigenbaum said India saw it as “hypocritical” and “reproach transfer”, saying that the Western collective failed to stop the war and has now been fixed on India. He also noted that New Delhi has become uneasy about the U.S. propaganda towards China.
Former U.S. ambassador to UN Nikki Haley Urging the government not to “burn the relationship between powerful allies like India”, highlights that Russia’s top oil buyer China received a 90-day tariff suspension in May.
Trading or no transaction?
The prospect of a trade deal appears slim. Feigenbaum said the Indian media, the public and the opposition urged the government not to show weakness. “Even if a deal is reached, the trust disappears,” he said.
Former Indian Finance Minister Subhash Garg’s “Inside India“Tuesday: “Our position is so different that there is little chance of reconciliation. ”
He suggested that India should absorb export strikes and diversify to domestic or alternative markets. “If there is a demand from the United States, they will buy and have American consumers and importers pay tariffs. Let them bear that.”
However, former Indian Labor Minister Sumita Dawra expressed cautious optimism to CNBC on Wednesday. She said India hopes trade negotiations in late August will achieve “positive results”.
Although tariffs may have an impact on exports, India’s domestic demand is “high”, she said, pointing to other trade agreements the country has been reaching, such as the India-UK Free Trade Agreement and the India-EU FTA, which is expected to end later this year.
“We are looking for a fair, mutually beneficial agreement,” Dowla said. “I’m sure our negotiators will do a good job.”
