The jobs, which delivered a breathtaking wake -up call to Wall Street on Friday, also contained a recession signal and further indications that the AI rejects employment.
The salary bills grew by only 73,000 last monthFar below the forecasts for around 100,000. In the meantime, the balance was reduced from May 144,000 to 19,000, and June’s total amount from 147,000 to only 14,000, which means that the average profit in the past three months is now only 35,000.
Of course, the weak jobs do not mean that there are mass layoffs. Other data records such as Weekly unemployed claims and monthly surveys to set up jobs support this. At the same time, wages and working weeks are still climbing.
“But the comfort that is achieved from this news is dominated by a sharp attitude that sends a stable speed alarm,” Jpmorgan wrote in a note late Friday.
In particular, the attitude in the private sector has slowed down to an average of 52,000 in the past three months, with sectors stagnating outside of health and education.
In conjunction with the lack of signs that unwanted separations rise due to immigration policy, this is a strong signal that business demand for work cooling has cooled down.
“We have consistently emphasized that a boost of the work requirement of this size is a recession warning signal,” added JPMorgan. “Companies usually contribute to setting gains due to growth losses, which they look at as a temporary view. In episodes, if the working needs glide with a growth injury, this is often a forerunner of the cut.”
At the moment, the total economic figures still show expansion, albeit slower. GDP recovered more robust than expected in the second quarter. He met 3%, although a metric that pronounces the effects of foreign trade and instead thought the final domestic demand, had slowed down. And for the third quarter BIP Tracker from Atlanta Fed Notes on growth that slows down to 2.1%.
JPmorgan also warned that the depressive pace of employment growth will probably maintain income gains or consumer confidence, which has decreased in recent months.
In the meantime, the wider U-6 measure of unemployment-people who have not been looking for work lately, but have still been interested in finding a job, as well as people who work part-time and prefer a full-time role this year.
In contrast, the headline unemployment rate has hardly changed and has changed between 4% and 4.2% more than a year in a narrow range.
Until Friday shockers, this contributed to the fact that the labor market was resilient in the face of steep tariff walks from President Donald Trump.
“We believe that the creation of jobs is no longer described appropriately than solidly described,” said JPmorgan. “Together with the establishment of towing from the trade war, the news this week supports our view that the FED approaches the relaxation.”
In a separate note from JPMorgan, further details in the job report were also emphasized, which indicate that AI has an impact on the labor market.
For example, the salary statements for professional and business service companies were lower and fell by 14,000 last month.
In addition, the unemployment rate for employees with a university degree increased from 2.5% to 2.7%, while the total unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%.
“New participants seem to have an unusually large part in increasing the unemployed in the past month,” said JPMorgan.
This follows earlier alarms about the use of AI reduce the need for an entry -level jobA critical springboard for the youngest university graduates who want to start their career.
But last month, the top economist Brad Delong recently argued in a recent essay that the challenges that young job seekers are confronted today mainly powered by widespread political uncertainty and a slow economy– not through the quick rise of AI tools.
Uncertainty causes companies to delay important decisions, including attitudes, in view of an unpredictable political environment that was no longer whipped as a trade war by Trump.
“This riska version is particularly harmful for those at the beginning of their career, which rely on a constant flow of entry openings to get a foot in the door,” he wrote.
