Donald Trump’s “Minerals-For-Aid”-based on Ukraine last week has moved the country’s enormous and rare mineral resources, for which Washington wishes for earlier military support.
Ukraine has large underground deposits worth up to 11.5 tn worth up to 11.5 participants From critical minerals, including lithium, graphite, cobalt, titanium and rare earths such as gallium, which are of essential importance for a series of industries from defense to electric vehicles.
However, these deposits, unusual in Europe, have no significant exploration or development – processes that take years even under stable jurisdiction. There are also no data for the quality of the reserves, namely information that investors need before millions of mines pour.
The interest of the US president follows his vocal offer Buy Greenlandalso rich in critical minerals. Western countries run around Secure alternative sources for rare earths to China, which dominates the global supply chain.
What rare earths and critical minerals does Ukraine have?
The underground of Ukraine is estimated 10 percent of global reserves from lithium, which, according to the government, is used in battery production. Reserves appear in about 820 km², but so far none have been dismantled.
Among the rare earths, Ukraine has essential, proven zirconium reserves that are used in nozzle engines and scandium, both of which are not yet dismantled. Some of his interludes of Tantal, which are used in semiconductors, niobium, which has the superconductive properties, and the metal beryllium of the aerospace sector are extracted on a small scale, but their potential, according to the Ukrainian civil servants, is largely.
The Ukrainian officials also say that their land in the top 10 world is for titanium reserves and is used for rockets, planes and ships. However, only around 10 percent of its proven reserves are developed.
Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal argued at the beginning of this month that Ukraine could replace the Russian titanium imports of Europe. But Roman Opimakh, former general director of the Ukrainian Geological Survey, said last week that there was “no modern evaluation” for rare earth reserves in Ukraine, and the estimates were based on old studies from the Soviet period.
The rhetoric of the minerals was a “severe political attitude. . . The data is not modern, we have very little information about what is there, ”said Gracelin Baskaran, director of the US Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Where are the natural resources?
The Ukrainian Geological Service says that the government has prepared around 100 locations for joint licensing and development, but has only announced a few details.
Ukraine’s mineral resources are located across the country, but since Kyiv estimates in 2022, the full invasion has been in 2022 since the Kyiv estimate.
The critical Metals Corp, based in Australia, bought the licenses at two of the best lithium insoles at the end of 2021, just three months before the beginning of Russia. One of them, the Shevchenko background in the east, fell under the Russian control, said its chairman Tony Sage the Financial Times.
“This is gone. We will never get it back, ”he said, adding that his Dobra deposit in the west remains the“ jewel in the crown ”.
Sage, whose company also has a mining license in Greenland, said that he was “very excited” about the talks started by Trump in the US Russia. “It will be fantastic for our company when there is a solution.”
What do the United States want?
Trump said last week that the Ukraine resources worth 500 billion US dollars – from mineral deposits to gas and even in infrastructure such as ports – in exchange for military support for previous military support against Russia.
That is much more than the total of $ 69.2 billion for military support that Washington has given since 2014 Statistics of the Foreign Ministry.
Zelenskyy has rejected the proposalAccording to four people who are familiar with the negotiations, the existence of transactions must be associated with mineral resources with the US security guarantees after the conflict. He is also interested in the fact that the EU and other countries such as Great Britain and Canada are involved in the future exploitation of natural resources.
What are the complications?
Investors and experts say that obstacles to the rapid development of these mining projects are important: complex civil bureaucracy, state regulations, restricted access to geological data and challenges in securing land.
Russia’s persistent attacks on the energy infrastructure have forced some mining operations to contact generators and to increase the costs for extraction and transport of the mined metals.
“While Ukraine may have a mineral potential for various raw materials and an established sector for steel and ferroalloys that could be revived, its future is very uncertain,” said Jack Bedder, founder of the Blue project Blue.
The “is not good for investments in projects that can take decades to finance, develop and commission,” he said.
Ferrexpo in Switzerlander Ferrexpo has a large iron ore mining and production operation in Ukraine, in which “significant investments” were required to maintain the production “after several years of restricted activities”, said analysts by Peel Hunt on Monday.
“As soon as the hostility is stopped, we suspect that the greatest risk will secure qualified employees,” she added.
The volt resources listed in Australia stopped production during its Zavalievsky-Graphit mining operation at the end of last year due to the challenging conditions.
Did Zelenskyy incorrectly calculate in his place to Trump?
Zelenskyy initially has the idea of offering, offering, offering mining rights as part of a “peace plan”, offering mining rights. He hit Trump last year.
However, the FT announced that the European and Ukrainian officials announced that Zelenskyy may have made a strategic mistake by incorporating a total value or details.
“It was clearly written as a bait for Trump,” said a high -ranking European official who was involved in talks with Kyiv. “But the lack of details meant that Trump was essentially named.”
“Some about Zelenskyy regret the way it was treated. . . They lost control of the story, ”added the official.
A high -ranking Ukrainian official said that Zelenskyy had “crystal clear” about the resources that are to be bound “to future guarantees for (American) security support”.
The Zelenskyy team endeavors to develop an attractive counterpart. The Trump approach annoyed its European allies, and civil servants at the Munich Security Conference Last weekend compared it with “Mafia -Track tactics”, “Wucher” and “Colonialism”.
“It is one thing to say that we will help you free your country and then take advantage of the resources under the floor,” said a second European official. “It is different to ask:” Pay this bill for the help we have already done “.”
Cartography by Steven Bernard
