“There is no alternative to Alexander Lukashenko”

There have been times in history when countries have been caught up in electoral fever.

The January 2025 event in Belarus is not one of them.

Driving around Minsk, you won’t see large billboards promoting candidates’ portraits.

There was little campaigning.

The gray skies and sleet of the Belarusian winter add to an overwhelming sense of stillness.

and necessity.

The outcome of the 2025 presidential election is no longer in doubt. Alexander Lukashenko, once dubbed “Europe’s last dictator” and who has ruled Belarus with an iron fist for more than 30 years, will be declared the winner and given a seventh term.

His supporters called it an exercise in “Belarusian democracy.” his opponent Rejection of viewing the process as “a farce”.

Even Lukashenko himself claims a lack of interest in the process.

“I will not focus on the campaign. I don’t have time,” the Belarusian leader told workers at a Minsk car plant this week.

The workers gave him a gift: an ax for cutting wood.

“I will try it before the elections,” Mr. Lukashenko promised, to loud applause.

Four and a half years ago, at another establishment, the Belarusian leader received a much colder reception.

A week after the 2020 presidential elections, Alexander Lukashenko visited the Minsk Wheel Tractor Factory. Leaked videos show him being jeered and heckled by workers. They shouted “Go away! Go away!”.

The official 2020 election results – with Lukashenko receiving 80% support – sparked anger and mass protests across the country. Belarusians took to the streets, accusing their leaders of stealing their votes and the election.

In the brutal crackdown that followed, thousands of anti-government protesters and critics were arrested. Eventually, a wave of repression quelled the protests and, with Russia’s help, Lukashenko remained in power.

The UK, EU and US refuse to recognize him as the legitimate president of Belarus.

Alexander Lukashenko’s most determined opponents (and potential rivals) are either in jail or forced into exile.

That’s why this week the European Parliament passed a resolution calling on the EU to reject the upcoming presidential election, calling it “a sham” and noting that the election campaign is taking place in “an environment of severe repression that does not even satisfy the EU.” requirements”. Minimum Standards for Democratic Elections”.

I remember Interview with Alexander Lukashenko last Octoberon the day the presidential election date was announced.

“How can these elections be free and democratic if the opposition leader is in prison or abroad?” I asked.

“Do you really know who the leader of the opposition is?” Mr Lukashenko shot back.

“The opposition is a group of people who should at least serve the interests of a minority in the country. Where are these leaders you are talking about? Wake up!”

Alexander Lukashenko is not the only candidate. There are four others. But they look more like disruptors than true challengers.

I drove four hours from Minsk to meet one of them. Sergey Silankov is the leader of the Communist Party of Belarus. I sat in on one of his campaign events in the town of Vitebsk. Mr Silankov addressed a small audience in a hall flanked by his party’s emblems – the hammer and sickle.

His campaign slogan was unusual, to say the least: “Not instead of Lukashenko, but with Lukashenko!”

He is a presidential candidate who openly supports his opponent.

“As the leader of our country, Alexander Lukashenko has no choice,” Mr. Silankov told me. “So, we’re going into the election with the president’s team.”

“Why do you think there are no other options?” I asked.

“Because Lukashenko is a man of the people, a man of the land, and he has done everything he can to make sure we don’t have the kind of chaos that happened in Ukraine.”

“You yourself are fighting for power, but you’re endorsing another candidate. That’s… unusual,” I suggested.

“I am convinced that Alexander Lukashenko will win a landslide victory. But even if he wins and I do not, the Communist Party will be the winner,” Mr. Silankov responded.

“The leading Communist Party member of our country is our head of state. Lukashenko still has his old membership card from the days of the Soviet Communist Party.”

Oleg Gaidukovich, leader of the right-wing Liberal Democratic Party of Belarus, also participated in the vote. Nor is he running to win.

“Anyone who dares to say that the outcome of the election is unknown is a liar,” Mr. Gaidukovich told me.

“It is clear that Lukashenko will win. He has high approval ratings… We will work hard to consolidate our position and prepare for the next election.”

Lukashenko’s critics deny claims his popularity is “enormous”. But there is no doubt that he does have support.

On the edge of Vitebsk is the small town of Oktyabrskaya. In talking to people there, I found concerns that a change in leadership could spark instability.

“I want a stable salary, a stable country,” Sergey, a welder, told me. “Other candidates make promises but may not deliver. I want to keep what I have.”

“The situation today was very tense,” Zenaida said. “There may be others who deserve power. But when a young leader gets under the table and makes these important connections with other countries and with his own people, it’s going to take a long time.

“God forbid we don’t end up like Ukraine.”

In Belarus today there is fear of instability, fear of the unknown and fear of the government. All works in favor of Alexander Lukashenko.