Key points:
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Recording global money supply growth is a huge headwind for Bitcoin.
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Spot Bitcoin ETFs may soon exceed gold holdings, thereby increasing BTC’s reserve status.
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Retail inflows are still limited, but if mainstream interest returns, it may inspire strong gatherings.
Bitcoin (BTC) The last trade was $120,000 on July 23, prompting traders to question whether there could be a new all-time high this year.
Global economic uncertainty and sustainability AI The industry is still the biggest risk.
Still, three main near-to-medium drivers may set Bitcoin to be well above their current market cap of $2.3 trillion.
Some analysts expect Bitcoin to exceed Gold’s $23 trillion valuation, while others believe it will take longer to be a complete separation from technology stocks as the early stages of adoption.
Even if investors’ perceptions don’t shift, the expansion of global money supply has laid the foundation for a new paradigm, and NVIDIA (NVDA) may indicate this change.
Bitcoin transactions like NVIDIA, Strategy and Metaplanet
NVIDIA’s valuation soared to $4.4 trillion from $2.3 trillion in March, despite the latest quarterly net income flat, compared with six months ago.
Traders may bet on higher future gains, or valuation indicators may lose correlation as governments hope Accelerate currency expansion Due to financial debts.
The global M2 money supply of the 21 largest central banks reached a record $55.5 trillion in July, while the U.S. federal budget deficit totaled $1.3 trillion in just nine months.
This situation supports the case of Bitcoin Bull, even if the relatively strong correlation between BTC and tech stocks continues.
However, retail inflow Still largely absent Although Bitcoin has grown at 116% over the past year, this is expected to change.
This gap is a magnet for new capital compared to the 22% annual return of the S&P 500, especially when cryptocurrencies gain traction in mainstream media strategy (MSTR) and Metaplanet (MTPLF) capture the headlines.
Related: Bitcoin company Metaplanet will start in August, with its first big buy
Currently, there are few signs of retail investors’ excitement from crypto apps like Coinbase and Robinhood, both out of the top 10, which was the last achieved in November 2024.
While the catalyst for re-retail interests is uncertain, there is still a lot of room for retail-driven rally in 2025, especially as traditional finance and the U.S. government embrace Bitcoin.
Bitcoin gets 401 (k) green light
US President Donald Trump Signed an executive order On Thursday, cryptocurrencies and other alternative assets are allowed in 401(k) retirement accounts.
Michael Heinrich, co-founder and CEO of 0G Labs, said changes to the 401(k) rule could “unlock Bitcoin’s retirement capital.”
Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of Bitwise, said the change could have an impact on the industry.
Currently, US spot Bitcoin exchange trade funds hold $150 billion in assets, while gold instruments as of July 2025 were $198 billion. according to Forbes.
Once the Bitcoin ETF is found to exceed Gold’s equivalent holdings, the activity can consolidate its perception as a reserve asset rather than Risk Trading.
Over time, more and more institutional investors may increase their Bitcoin positions as it can become a reserve asset for listed companies, sovereign wealth funds and governments. Although the exact timing remains uncertain, Bitcoin seems to have set firmly on the new all-time high in 2025.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be considered legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent Cointelegraph’s views and opinions.
