Getty ImagesDonald Trump’s White House has pledged “90 deals in 90 days” after partially suspending the process of imposing what the U.S. president calls “countdown” tariffs.
In fact, nine deals won’t even be completed by July 9 when Trump’s first deadline is reached.
The things revealed here, poker “tells” whether you want to, are extensions of the deadline, from Wednesday to August 1, with the possibility of further expansion or delays.
From a U.S. perspective, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said all focus is on the 18 countries that have caused 95% of the U.S. trade deficit.
Jaunty letters sent from the U.S. to its trading partners this week were just a reincarnation of that infamous White House “Liberation Day” blue board.
The interest rate is basically the same as the price first revealed on April 2. The infamous equation, which uses a measure of deficit size in a form of “sum of all trade cheats”.
None of this was announced earlier this year due to this additional delay, without market turmoil.
Financial markets believe that the idea of tacos continues to be delayed and Trump is always chicken–though they may incite steps, leading to every aspect of the crisis.
But the real gain here is that the Trump administration cannot reach an agreement. These letters are acknowledgement of failure.
The White House may be playing hard balls, but so are most other countries.
Japan and South Korea were picked out the first two letters, effectively further blowing up trade deals with the United States.
What did the Japanese do with their anger at the United States?
Its Treasury Secretary even hints at the world’s largest U.S. government debt inventory (basically the largest U.S. debt banker) as a source of potential leverage.
The April dynamics haven’t really changed.
When U.S. retailers warn of rising prices and empty shelves in the White House, the rest of the world believes that when the trade war looks real, sell the United States.
Throughout the system, there is still a reasonable court case that could make tariffs illegal.
But now, the world is also beginning to see the digital impact of disrupting the global trading system.
For multiple currencies this year, the value of the U.S. dollar has fallen by 10%.
During Bessent’s confirmation hearing, he said a possible increase in the value of the dollar would help mitigate any inflationary impact of the tariffs.
The opposite happened.
Trade numbers are also beginning to change. There were a lot of stockpiles before the tariffs, and more significant drops have recently been.
Meanwhile, China’s exports to the United States have fallen by 9.7% so far this year.
But China’s shipping volume to the rest of the world has increased by 6%. This includes a 7.4% increase in exports to the UK, a 12.2% increase in 10 members of the ASEAN Union and a 18.9% increase in Africa.
These numbers are fluctuating, but consistent with the numbers that may be predicted.
Revenue from tariffs began to pour into the U.S. Treasury Department and received in May.
As the United States builds tariff walls around itself, the rest of the world may trade with each other – just look at the recent economic deals between the UK and India, as well as the EU and Canada.
It is worth noting that over the past 40 years, the U.S.’s effective tariff rate on the rest of the world is now around 15%, between 2% and 4%. This is before further changes to these letters.
The market response is currently very calm. It may not remain that way.
Following Trump’s second term with weekly twists and weeks of North American correspondent Anthony Zurcher American politics continues to grow communication. British readers can Register here. Anyone outside the UK can Register here.
