Switch the White House newsletter on free of charge
Your guide to what Trump’s second term for Washington, business and world means
Donald Trump’s “breathtaking fiscal policy surplus” and attacks on the independence risk of the Federal Reserve, which reduce the status of the USA as the ultimate safe Haven for foreign investors, have warned the economists surveyed by the Financial Times.
The survey, which was carried out by the Kent a Clark Center for Global Markets at the BOK School of Business at the University of Chicago, showed that more than 90 percent of the economists surveyed either were a little concern or very concerned about the safe role of the US dollar in the next five to ten years.
The White House insisted this week that Trump’s economic policy will help reduce the debts Win in the Senate via fiscal falcons And receive the president’s flagship tax bill via the line.
Independent estimates, including fiscal watchdogs, indicate the measures it contains budget Bill, who describes Trump as “Big Beautiful Bill”-will surpass the US federal debt after the Bite World War later after the Second World War.
While the dollar Usually it estimates during the panic of the global market, the sharp sale in the global stock markets after Trump was unveiled aggressive mutual tariffs on April 2, a depreciation of the US currency was connected.
The benchmark S&P 500 has recovered since then and is with one Always high In the midst of hope that Trump’s economic policy does not derail growth or that inflation is driving in the world’s largest economy.
“Safe-Haven assets seem to be (the) Swiss franc and gold. In fact, the United States looks like a emerging market, with political uncertainty leads to increasing risk premiums that lowers the long-term returns and currency value,” said Saroj Bhattarai at the University of Texas in Austin.
With a three-year low, the dollar acts under concerns about the tax sustainability and questions of the questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve as Trump continues to attack Jay Powell With regard to its reluctance to reduce interest rates because the global trade war could increase inflation.
“The breathtaking surplus for control policy is almost guaranteed, and that, although hardly guaranteed, invites a change in the heart to the heart of $ dollar,” said Robert Barbera from John’s Hopkins University.
“Do you get married this aspiring reality with a de facto takeover of the Fed -through a powell shot or the advocate of a hack as a Powell replacement?
Powell’s term ends in May 2026 and speculations are widespread that Trump could call his Choose to replace it At the beginning of an offer to undermine the Fed chair.
“Household deficits, deliberate state measures to reduce the US financial account and devaluation of the dollar, the uncertainty about the successor to the Fed and the questions about the independence of the FED have negatively on the Safe -Haven status of the dollar,” said Anna Cieslak from Duke University.
The US Ministry of Finance, which usually fall in times of the volatility of the market administration, rose in early April. While the 10-year-old benchmark return has dropped to around 4.3 percent, many economists believe that he could soon reach 5 percent-a level that would trigger concern within the Trump government.
Almost three quarters of the 47 respondents of the survey have increased over 5 percent on 10-year debt until the mid-next year.
“US finance ministry (bonds) may no longer be a safe asset,” said Evi Pappa from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. “Take a look at what happened on the ‘Liberation Day” in the USA 10 years compared to European returns. ”
Economists have become darker in the US economic prospects since their last survey in March.
The median expectation now serves that the world’s largest economy will grow by 1.5 percent in the course of this year, according to an estimate of 1.6 percent in spring.
Separate surveys of economists and US households and companies show that forecasts for growth and self -confidence were quickly decreased after the announcement of the tariffs on April 2, but have been partially recovered on the back of the commercial arms between the USA and China and the increase in equity prices.
Economists have also become Hawkischer in the price pressure, since the average expectations of core inflation are increasing from 2.8 percent in June in June, since Trump’s tariffs will be passed on to US consumers.
However, only a few surveyed believed that a core inflation of more than 50 percent exceeded a core inflation of more than 4 percent and the unemployment rate at the same time over 5 percent between now and at the end of 2026.
A better than expected reading for the consumer price index -in May the hopes that less would be feared would be passed on to American buyers would be passed on to American buyers.
The annual number for the inflation published on Friday for personal consumption in May, however, slightly rose from 2.6 percent in the previous month to 2.7 percent.
